I'm looking forward to this one , Narcissism and the victim martyr narrative through various lenses is what has always gone wrong with society and always will , thinking you're good or doing good but in fact is the antithesis because of Narcissism
Anyone who says they can't get totally behind anyone else's ideology is a breath of fresh air. Too many people blindly follow certain people without questioning anything they say.
What a lovely chap, genuine enthusiastic talker who actually says an awful lot without you realising until he moves on to another subject 😊 it made me giggle watching you trying to find a break in his enthusiasm x
I always end stating a similar thing, an interviewer that allows for free flowing discourse without the compulsion to interrupt. I have waited for this type of platform for an age. Andrew, thank you
My godfather was an NYC homicide detective in the 70’s and 80’s, at a time when such a position could be achieved without a degree in criminal justice or the scientific aspects of crime. He solved quite a few high profile and even famous cases all through a combination of street smarts, intuition, and common sense. In today’s world, he’d barely rise above writing parking tickets. He feels that most major crimes in the Western world don’t get solved these days because they replaced men like him with woke college educated officers who couldn’t solve a crossword puzzle, much less a murder with little to no evidence prior to DNA technology.
The problem is, that in today's world - there's a complete lack of that combination of street smarts, intuition, and common sense your grandfather obviously possessed in the demographic who don't have the same employment opportunities he had. They're all brainwashed on social media and cossetted from life experience on every level - and actively avoidant of anything that might take them away from TikTok for five minutes. I know some kids still travel - but not to the extent I did at their age. They're all convinced of their "mental health" crisis - a self-fulfilling prophecy monetized by all the "mental health" experts on social media. It is a closed circuit of ignorance, entitlement and apathy.
Sadly, modern education is so flooded with indoctrination that it's not the education that's needed. Our society was better off when we have people that use some basic sense and deductive reasoning to solve the problems that needed to be solved. Or basic civics in school anymore.
Please thank your godfather for his service. My brother was a police officer in the UK, now retired. His frustrations are similar. These old school law veterans are an ignored, even maligned, asset, shamefully disrespected by the modernists.
I love this channel, a frequent reminder of how crazy the world is going - but also keeps me from joining the insanity through believing its the new norm
Posie also says something to the effect that milder and nuanced clearly hasn't worked and actually it's those people who have taken that approach who have helped to create the mess we're in because they've essentially been communicating to everyone that to be acceptable they too should dance around and walk on eggshells about the trans issue instead of simply coming out and telling it like it is, which would have made others feel like 'right if they can speak the truth in plain English then so can I'. This is of course my wording but it in essence captures Posie's perspective.
Yes,you're can't be mild with constant idiocy,and as men we aren't as affected by trans "men". I'm not worried about a woman dressed as a man in my private spaces or sports. I think the one thing we're are as concerned about is the effect it has on children and young people.
There are a couple of very good reasons those approaches were tried before clobbering woke with aggressive tactics like lawsuits and government policy reforms (some nations are already at the point of government intervention, such as New Zealand after it's recent landslide election to vote in a government that ran on a strong anti-woke platform). First is that we aren't generally against WHAT the woke are pushing for, we are against HOW they are doing it. As just one example, nobody reasonable cares if someone is trans, they do care about the implications of eradicating safe spaces for biological females and forcing upon our kids anti-intellectual, anti-scientific garbage about sex and gender with zero consultation of parents and the defamation of objectors. In short, people have the right to do or be what they want until it interferes with the rights of others, at which point it becomes immoral and in some cases criminal. Social and legal regulations should always adhere to the concept of maximized benefit with minimized negative impact. The powers that be haven't just abandoned this concept, they publicly wiped their asses with it. The second reason is that NOT being open to debate is a fundamental component of how critical studies operate. "Praxis" - the actual doing of a thing - is demanded by the core tenets of critical theory (yes, straight out of the communist handbook). You've likely seen it many times along the lines of "It isn't enough to be not racist, you have to be anti-racist", meaning you HAVE to engage in belligerent, aggressive activism or else you are still a racist. They aren't just totalitarian towards those they seek to cancel or silence, they are utterly authoritarian over their own as well. It would be a very bad move to bring that concept over to the sane side of the culture war because not only would we be behaving just as immorally as they are, we would be actively restricting speech, thought and behavior in the same way the woke do. All that said, I find it very hard to maintain such composure and not just wish to see the woke torn limb from limb by rabid dogs.
This is a guy who notices everything, remembers everything, and has an uncanny knack for integrating, reordering and expressing all that information. Rory can go on for hours, and it might seem like a whole string of trivial points… but taken in aggregate, and with his humor, there’s a lot of lessons in there.
He's an absolute gem, the kind of guy that starts talking to you in a pub without invitation but by the end of the evening you're buying him pints because it's just so interesting.
Wow Rory can talk. In a good way. My brain is 10 minutes behind him processing what he says. Great channel allowing the guest to talk. Thank you Andrew. Keep up the great content. I’m a fan and recommend your channel to others.
The problem with trigger warnings today is,they're warning people like students about things that they should be able to withstand like opinions. Great interview, I'd definitely like a pint or four with Rory!
Its not my responsibility to warn someone else's emotional sensitivities. An adult should be able to discern those things by themselves. I remember watching a video on reddit about a car accident & it showed the video. Someone in the comments said "You should have had a TRIGGER WARNING! I'm TRAUMATIZED" & the response was "well, it says in the TITLE "FATAL car accident, you should have assumed from the title it was NSFW". Freaking ridiculous.
About American tipping, I have become better at standing my ground on tipping. Rewarding one for outstanding service or product is one thing, but being told how much to tip and that it is the expected formula is BS. Merchants and their help aren't being paid enough to live on, so I need to pay extra to pick up the slack. No. As long as customers keep accommodating these ridiculous rules, businesses will continue to under pay their employees.
In USA most restaurants are allowed to pay wait staff under minimum wage expecting tips to make up the difference. In some places tips are shared with managers! Tipping in USA was expected for restaurant sit down meals and hotel room cleaning staff at end of motel stay, parking attendants, bellhops who bring luggage to rooms, and airport luggage handlers at curbside. Who did I forget.
@WindTurbineSyndrome I tip the kids that help me take my groceries to the car on the days where I'm really not feeling well (chronic pain) even though the store policy states that tips are not part of their policy. If somebody is helping me out and being super kind then I'm going to show my thanks! But I think you got the basics covered with waitstaff and service staff!
@elizabethlanders9805 agreed! I love to give praise to people who work hard and step up to the plate. It's admirable and I want them to know that they are appreciated!
@@ry.butterflyI agree...Iike giving for exceptional service. Tbe person appreciates it and everybody wins. Hotel will not distribute tips to staff. I know. I am in the travel business.
@jazura2 oh wow, I didn't know that! So if you leave a tip for staff at the desk they won't get it? I usually try to give the tip directly to the person themselves but if I can't then what is the best way to ensure they get it?
Top points for letting this guy speak and ramble a bit. He was fascinating to listen to and far too many interviewers feel the need to interrupt every 10 seconds. Great interview.
Regarding Mr. Rorys story about his brother and consumer decisions, there is a book called "The Paradox of Choice," and is about this very phenomenon. About how too many choices can lead to paralysis. If you have too many choices, it can leave you with the anxiety that you may have not made the right one. As opposed, if you only have 2 options, the chances of you making the incorrect choice are significantly reduced. Also as a disabled person I agree with his point about people thinking they can speak for other groups. People thinking they can speak for disabled people if offensive and patronizing, and is further pushing us into invisibility. They usually don't know disabled people, the needs and issues we face. This is further made worse by the wheelchair token. When the majority of disabled people aren't in a wheelchair. For one, we aren't a race or community. A person with cystic fibrosis doesn't relate anymore to the blind more than anyone else.
There's another way that having choices can lead to paralysis, and that is that you have to educate yourself about what the choices mean, and then whether you care about them. I remember the first time I went to the US, and I went to a coffee shop with a friend. When my turn came, the barista pelted me with a barage of questions about type of bean, type of roast, type of milk etc. Most of these I actually had no opinion about so I started asking the barista about the choices. I could sense the frustration from the people in line behind me, so in the end I just gave random answers. The coffee was perfectly decent, so I wasn't paralysed by the idea that my choices had been "wrong", just that I was being forced to make choices I didn't care about.
@@Guzunderstrop Yes, it's presumed that having a wide variety of choices is automatically a good thing. It isn't, informed choice is. Having a choice when you don't know the pros and cons is pointless, no matter how many options you have. Your story is similar to what my partners parents experienced in the US concerning ordering a breakfast. The options concerning JUST what the fried egg was cooked in started with what type of oil. They answered olive oil presuming that would be it, but no. Green or black olives? Italian Greek or Spanish? Light or virgin? It soon got very tiresome for them having to chose every little trivial thing.
This the first encounter I've had with Rory Sutherland and have to say I'm impressed with his pragmatic yet still nuanced views. He makes a great point about problem solving and argument winning are two very distinct skill sets that often don't overlap, yet we put the argument winners in charge of solving problems.
Rory is such an absolute character, isn't he!? You couldn't put a word in edgeways Andrew 🤣 All those questions you had prepared went out of the window: Rory follows his own train of thought. Another great episode, thank you! ❤
@@elizabethlanders9805Doug Kramer on Dazed But Not Confused, smoked on air...before he recently died- from smoking....says the girl with the ciggy in her hand...
I wonder what Rory Sutherland - as a marketing executive - thinks about our 'religious' cognitive dissonance: whereby we ban tobacco advertising on the Nation's TV screens; and yet have wall-to-wall advertising, to children, for GAMBLING? Is it not time for us to put the Gambling Companies back in their box?
Australia has gambling ads on TV and at the end of the ad they say "chances are, you're about to LOSE" 😂😂 Funny they never have that disclaimer at the end of state Lottery ads though.
@@aidananstey9848 Exactly. There was a time when gambling - like lying - was regarded as a 'bad action'. Today both are indulged-in by the highest in the land! Relativism rules!
I think it comes from older people's unfamiliarity with technology. Most gambling nowadays is done on stock trading apps, cryptocurrencies, in video games, and it will take time for our 85 year old overlords to die and be replaced with someone who knows how to send an email, who may be able to understand these issues and create sensible policies.
Neither of you has really understood why GCs have become more extreme. On the face of it, it sounds very reasonable interview more trans people. But the ideology has become so dangerous (not merely toxic) to women, children, young people, and become so deeply engrained in our institutions, that many people have begun to feel we cannot maintain any flexibility in discussing it. We cannot continue to support something which is essentially a lie.
If the state can get you to believe that a man is a women, and enforce that belief, they will try to get you to believe anything. This issue is beyond "bathrooms".
I feel like English people do use Yiddish. It seems fairly common to hear words like schmooze, glitch, nosh...schmaltzy. I hear people say "kosher" as well as a way of suggesting something is right or wrong, or even a bit off: "that doesn't seem quite kosher".
I was born and brought up in Cambridge (England) and didn’t realise how many Yiddish words I use til moved to Scotland. They understand most of the words I use on the Isle of Islay where I now live but I get a very puzzled look if I use the expression ‘Stay schtum’
Being "extremely critical" of something is NOT the same thing as being in some way socially or politically "extreme." Kelly-Jay Keene definitely IS extremely critical of so-called "gender ideology," and rightly so. So am I: so should we all be.
Absolutely right. The thing about the whole trans issue is that it is predicated on a completely false premise of 'nuance,' so called gender fluidity. Sex is binary. Men are men and women are women. As soon as you attempt to be nuanced in your argument you are rejecting reality. On the other hand, sexuality and desire CAN be fluid and more nuanced. The 'T' has nothing to do with the 'LGB'.
This is SO HOW this "movement" has also become So fucking annoying...self-interest without a dab of enlightenment. I object to anyone's insistence upon me that I comply...but when someone quietly goes about something unique, I'll respect it all day!
So you aren’t a capitalist… Nor have you ever worked in the service industry. Demonstrated effort, attentiveness, and being pleasant = MORE money. I assure you that a drive through worker will never have the same incentive as a server who NEEDS to provide good service to make good money. Other than Japan- not sure where in East Asia I’d praise for their treatment of workers…
@@Smashthemadnessif you receive bad service in a US restaurant you're still expected to tip. In Ireland where tipping is not as prominent you (usually) get good service
Andrew @ ~1:03:40 he doesn't like tipping, and would rather go to a hotel that cost more without needing to tip housekeeping etc. I've heard multiple examples from U.S. and Canada of restaurants saying just that, no tipping, we pay our staff more, you pay a little more. I see a story when they open and then again a few months later when they close.
Sutherland makes an interesting point about reaching a tolerable degree of punctuality with trains. When I worked at Tesco (many years ago) they had a traffic light system (maybe they still do) for various in-store targets; red, amber, green and blue. Green meant hitting the target and blue meant exceeding the target. A blue light was intended as a warning. If a department was exceeding a target in a particular area then they had to make sure that they were not doing so to the detriment of other goals.
1:17:00 indeed but to the earlier point... when dual incomes now are the minimum to purchase a property in the UK, removing the minimum square foot size of a property will have rightmove plastered with capsule apartments for £1200 a month. Then that becoming the norm. For landlords its amazing. Ive seen a 4 bedroom house converted into a 30 "capsule" rented space. Then at £40,000 a month income - families have zero chances to buy a house.
The jackets are incredible in this episode! Your view on tipping was really interesting. I grew up in America, so I'm used to the tipping culture. However, I understand your point about the inauthenticity of the "customer service" face. I think the switch from "customer service" to "resting" face may not be as strange to us, because lots of us have had customer service jobs (unless your family has money). We understand how much energy it takes to sell and give good service, so we're not really shocked by people needing to go back to their resting face. I think it might also be why we don't mind tipping a large amount if the service is good. We kind of remember being that person, so there's a small human-to-human solidarity present that can make people feel good to tip. I say "we" here, but of course I can't speak for everyone. There's Americans who hate the tipping culture, too, for the very reasons you stated.
I expressed the desire to hear Rory discuss tipping, but I failed to get satisfaction here, both because the subject was diverted and because he takes a different approach. Personally I think tipping is horrible, for many reasons. I don't want to have a nice dinner turned into an evaluation session for the performance I don't care about from someone I don't know. It's unpleasant because you feel like you're possibly short-changing someone who's a sort of institutionalized beggar; but you may also realistically be gifting a generous amount of money to someone who's eventually better off than you (a tourist from a poorer country) and isn't doing anything special. American waiters are genuinely annoying to me; it's not the face expression, they're proactively intrusive and fake. The passive aggressive pushing for higher and higher percentages is the icing on the cake of this absurdity. The waiter is getting the good and the bad from an experience that is often not at all depending on him/her, but on other staff or issues with the place. Final point: American clients are mentally trained to have a humble servant begging for a tip all the time, and that's probably the reason why American tourists are RENOWN for being impossible, whiny, demanding...
Two book recommendations for Sutherland (which I actually think he will enjoy if he has not read them already): 1) 'Superforecasters' by P. Tetlock, 2) 'Rationality' by S. Pinker. 'Superforecasters' very lucidly addresses precisely the sort of problem situation in which we have imperfect information and want to arrive at quantitative probability estimates. There are several important aspects to this. Firstly, historical "reference classes" for the kind of event being forecasted provide a lot of information: how rare is event-type A given B? Secondly, a lot of "Fermi estimation" is used - here you calculate a more complex numerical estimate using a series of simpler estimates, in hope that the errors in the sub-estimates will tend to balance out. Thirdly, forecasters are encouraged to regularly practice making quantitative probabilistic predictions that quantify their degrees of subjective credence, and using the feedback to "calibrate" themselves; it turns out people can get quite good at this, as measured by metrics of forecasting quality such as Brier-scores. But really the whole panoply of critical thinking skills are relevant to forecasting - good forecasters are unusually vigilant against bias, logical, and they often think explicitly in Bayesian terms, or make use of statistical techniques are mathematical modelling. The general point is that the task of trying to reduce the complex and fuzzy world of grey uncertainties to precise numerical probabilities is not hopeless, and can actually be done with some success by those practiced in the relevant skills. But a pre-requisite - or, at least, a great aid - for developing these skills is being able to solve the kinds of "stupid" problems you will find in maths textbooks or logic puzzles where, implausibly, all of the information is available. Sutherland is quite right that this is a fairly different art from that practiced by research scientists, but it is the sort of thinking that is valuable in fields such as finance. Pinker's 'Rationality' is a delightful book from which anyone can learn something. It is an excellent primer on some of the issues I have already mentioned - Bayesian inference, cognitive biases, basic statistics, etc. It also has a very good discussion of "decision theory", which, in conjunction with probabilistic thinking, deals in a systematic way with the problem of decision-making under uncertainty. If we make use of Bayesian thinking and optimal decision theory, we can be more precise about the sorts of questions which interest Sutherland - how much weight should we give to surprising new information? what should our evidential threshold for criminal investigations be? etc.
It's great to hear Rory advocating Georgism. We could settle so many political debates if we distinguished between productive business and exploitative rent-seeking.
With respect Rory, your Peter Sutcliffe story is wrong. The police were alerted to his car due to false number plates and then he couldn’t tell them the name of his female companion who in fact was a sex worker and would’ve been his next victim. After the cops had got him out of the car, he told them he needed a wee. He went in the bushes and dumped his killing tools, a knife, hammer and rope, so when the police searched his car they didn’t find anything. He was arrested that night for the offences. Back at the cop shop the police realised his likeness to the Yorkshire Ripper and began questioning him about that. The officers returned to the scene and found the tools he’d dumped the night before. I’m a true crime fan and have a special interest in serial killers so I had to set the record straight. As always I thoroughly enjoyed the whole episode and all the topics covered. I love the purple jacket Andrew! ❤
jojo you're absolutely correct. I vividly remember these details about the arrest of Peter Sutcliffe as well. Also, this was an episode with two wonderfully coloured jackets in it!
Amusing. A change from sometimes dull, other times irritating stuff that too often comes my way. A bit of humour makes a pleasant diversion or distraction from angry, holier than thou behaviour.. He reminds me of my brother, William, on a good day. I did Philosophy at Manchester. The department, which was closed down in the 1990s had an interesting history. The rift between real philosophy and relativist negative philosophers has long caused immense disputes across the country. Like the restaurant anecdote... it taught me more than what it could possibly do in the work itself. This applied particularly in the late 1970s. The dismantling of philosophy has been a social catastrophe.. the fact virtually no one was aware of what was happening is telling.
The reason that TV advertising appears next to more graphic material than youtube advertising is because when commercial TV began in the UK, the government was concerned that advertisers would exercise control over the content of broadcasts as they already did in the US, so the sale of adverts was restricted to sale of advertising packages to be shown at the discretion of the broadcaster (this is also why sponsorship was not permitted until the 1990s). RUclips defaults to the American system where advertisers have full control and naturally the government is too spineless and ineffectual to bring it into line with established British broadcasting practices.
troubleshooting a person (as a pretty good troubleshooter myself) takes association. Through compassion and empathy one can attempt to try to associate with another and in that association both agree to the causality of an issue to then be able to resolve it. As an IT tech I have found most of the time I am helping the person with the PC and not the PC with the person.
Honestly, I would listen to Rory Sutherland go on about any topic he chooses for ninety minutes. But the real gold in this interview was the empathic anxiety of watching Andrew attempting to get in his questions. Great stuff, as always.
Ordinary women are becoming more angry because our language is being bastardised, as well as women being in fear every day of losing jobs, our sports, our spaces and all we see is men winning womens awards etc and kids are being lied too 😢😢😢
First, men protected women. Then women said they didn't need it. Then women took it for granted. Then women said they could beat men. They women said they were better at everything. Then women said men were useless. Then women said all men were misogynist. Then women said all men should die. Then women refused to listen to anything men said. Finally... men stopped protecting women. Then women said men were monsters for not protecting them. Then men stopped caring what women said!
This is something that makes me very angry. People worry about a word being some kind of ist but are silent about minority children being killed in Chicago from gang violence. They worry about a team name while the drug cartels invade American Indian Reservations. They can’t get any more police hired because of all the bureaucracy. There are five or six government agencies that oversee the reservations, they don’t work together and you can’t get anything done. If you want to help fix that.
I agree. Real issues are complex. Feds with all their insane need to keep all our digital data stored at NSA but real problems Americans experience are neglected or ignored. always money for war. The local police like the public schools are funded by town tax dollars. In my town they bought police all electric vehicle police cars at great expense. They don't work they constantly break down take forever to fix and they want gas powered ones but the town said no. So we have 5 working squad cars on road 24 hrs a day for a 50 sq mile town. We have to make changes locally. We have no power in Washington.
'The skill you need to solve problems and the skill you need to win arguments, they're not the same skill.' That sounds like what Plato said in The Republic. “In politics we presume that everyone who knows how to get votes knows how to administer a city or a state. When we are ill… we do not ask for the handsomest physician, or the most eloquent one.” As I've seen it translated elsewhere, the problem with democracy is that it elects people who are skilled at winning elections, not people who are skilled at governing.
6:58 Whether you go in forwards or park in reverse depends on where the pillars in the garage are. Always make sure that your driver side door is on the pillar-side. That way you have more room to open your instead of having to squeeze out because your door bumps into the car next to you. Nice tip for going in forwards: drive in aiming for one spot farther then your space. Then reverse while turning your steering wheel the other direction. Then your car is perfectly lined up to drive straight forward into your space. Very elegant move; Rory shouldn't knock it.
Narcissism is the problem. Raised by narcissist parents and married a covert one. The sooner people who know about narcissist speak up the better. Education is the key to the way out of this.
Found your channel a few days ago, have been steadily working through it. Absolute A+ content. You're going to be hitting 1 Million subs before the years done easily. Keep up the fantastic work!!
Your heretic channel is usually far above my head. I listen and sometimes learn something I’ve never thought abt before. Other times I don’t understand a word.
American companies won’t distribute the extra money to their low skilled workforce unless and until they are forced to. This is why the minimum wage hasn’t risen and tipping culture is still in force
Minimum wage doesn't rise where there is a high competition for jobs (cheap labor.). What causes cheap labor? Illegals being allowed to flood across the border. The more people searching for the same jobs, the less those people will get paid. Supply and demand is basic economics.
Well it's more complicated than that. Back in 90s free trade agreements and push for globalism meant many manufactured moved to China and overseas. The only jobs available now are part time sales or retail jobs where the schedule changes weekly no guarantee if hours but unable to take a second job with hours shifting. No unions no opportunity to advance, no benefits. Many states are pegged to a minimum wage that was never adjusted for inflation. Work for hire laws meant workers had zero job security and were at the mercy of management. where I live aging workforce means elderly must work part time to pay their bills, their property tax. Social security they worked for thirty years ago is too low to live on today it's a third of what one person needs to live in a year. So there are lots of issues with the work force. Amazon has nothing but disdain for workers the govt finally explained to the corporate heads their business model meant they would have to hire every single person in America five times. They had no interest in long term employment that was their business model.
I love how he's able to integrate and explain information in an extremely cross discipline manner; references to algorithms, psychology, economics etc.
I’d love it if Rory had his own RUclips channel where he picks a subject and then talks off the cuff for an hour or two. I think that’d be extraordinarily popular and very entertaining!!
RORY SUTHERLAND'S mind is gargantuan, like a large comet making ripples through the cosmos. He is a psychological oracle, a wizard of human perception.
I understand what he says about tipping culture but the reality is - a lot of people don’t have the extra money to keep tipping everyone for good service. We may just have enough “for the thing” so next time out service will go down because they know we don’t ‘tip well’
Great interview. My sides were splitting when your guest kept talking over you and you were like ‘shut up’ and he says JC. Hilarious. Thoroughly enjoyed it.
Andrew, the Hotel/Restaurant is NOT going to distribute to the staff. They will trouser your money. In NYC min wage is $15/hour & not enough to live on anywhere & THAT is what staff will earn without tipping.
Sure they will, employers will pay whatever is needed to keep employees as long as it still makes sense for them too. But, they wouldn't pay more than it would cost to replace them. It seems people can't quite get past the notion that while you may think your time is worth a wage you can raise a family on, if there is a teenager that can do your job just as well for less it really isn't worth what you think it is.
I always love listening to Rory but I do sometimes wish he'd finish more of his thoughts rather than getting distracted by another thought halfway through!
I love listening to Rory talk just because. He'd be a fabulous person to have a drink with in the evening in front of a fire and chat all evening about ideas.
The principle asset which has been lost (removed) along the way is the potential to "squat" long term empty and derelict properties lacking any restorative plans. The amount of revenue generated during the 70s and 80s from creative, entrepreneurial, imaginative people from multiple fields to pursue their skills and dreams without crippling overheads is underestimated today. Many billions were created by the people not pushed into fighting daily for financial survival on the way up.
The USA changed their bankruptcy laws and earlier Japan did. Not being able to wipe debt clean 100% anymore has seriously hurt entrepreneurial areas. The credit card companies force it through..
Problem solving is logical thinking that can be directly tested. An argument needs a logical thinking process, but direct testing can be derailed by the erroneous thinking of the intended audience. One of these erroneous thoughts is that a good problem solver shares no process with a good arguer. This is a very anti-intellectual idea...one that quickly devolves into an epistemological contradiction. To be good at both you need to identify, integrate, then test your thesis. Feedback is essential for both, but the arguer has a tougher time getting to the intended result: if an arguer gets erroneous feedback from their audience (personal attacks, distortions, contradictions) they cannot "retest" the audience without addressing the personal attack, distortion, or contradiction *_FIRST._* The problem solver can always make a change, test, make another change, retest...until the problem is solved or they simply give up. Feedback from one is direct, like temperature, speed, or size. Feedback for the other can be a logical counterargument, a lie, a threat, or a blank stare. 🤤
Rory is both an interviewer’s dream and nightmare. He’s fascinating and overflowing with great information and insights, but he will just talk and not allow others to get a word in, or he’ll cut them off and is quite unintentionally rude.
@@YvonneBrisbaneI want to push this one through but I’m only 6 minutes in and already having a hard time. **edit Literally one minute later he had me. That was funny because super same and relatable. I’ll stick with it now.
@tinkercat8268 yes that would be why you were reading the comments. I did the same thing. Good luck and good on you for opening your mind watching and listening to interesting conversations.
25:30 Rory] "What do we optimize for in politicians? the ability to win arguments... ...now the skill you need to solve problems and the skill you need to win arguments, they are not the same skill - ok?" There is a stage in childhood development, where if you have children that when they reach the age of about seven or eight where they actually begin to to *think* for themselves. [little girls are usually a little ahead of the little boys here] And, they almost inevitably fall into this false syllogism: 'If *I* can think it, it must be true *because* I can think it [or because *I* can think it] This is the first assertion of the neophyte ego. Many children, especially the most intelligent ones, especially girls these days, never progress intellectually beyond this neophyte stage of thinking. Some of us grow out of this particular stage because we been forced out of it. These days we tend to refrain from allowing young people, especially young girls especially, from maturing intellectually because we are hesitant to allow them to experience intellectual humiliation - because that hurts. One of the possible consequences of being truly and utterly destroyed in an argument is the realization of the Truth of my argument *does not depend on me.* I *know* I can be wrong, that as soon as I 'click' on the "Comment" button someone on this channel more intelligent and better informed than me *can hand my ass to to me.* I learned that lesson at about age nine - and it sucks - but at least I put in the effort.
Just to answer you, I know about chutzpah and schlepping and a smattering of Jewish words and phrases. I'm a Scottish Protestant in London. My flatmate 1990 to 92 taught me, but most people I know understand quite a bit. Also, coincidentally, I have just acquired Seinfeld seasons 1--6 for a re-watch.
Can believe your interview with ms. Oliver was demonetized! It was such an important interview about what is happening to children and why we are not protecting them and leaving criminals on the streets. How we are protecting people that commit crimes and not victims.
This is thoroughly enjoyable : by the way since the public loos have disappeared one may use lavatories in cafes etc they are required to let you use them
I was a cocktail bartender in both UK & NYC & I LOVE the USA tipping system. Waiters & bar staff in NYC are World Class & many are Uni Grads & aspiring artists & actors.
Surely we don't employ politicians to solve problems. Civil servants do that. The politicians argue for the right to solve problems in a particular way and always have done.
Destroying land ownership with taxes is anti-conservation, anti-agriculture, and destructive of social stability. Without attachment to land, people lose their attachment to community.
@@differentname5867the distinction Rory coined here is unnecessary. It's less about whether the economy is "creative" or not, it's about whether free market competition exists or not. Where the economy is controlled by very few entities, ie. monopoly or oligopoly, lack of competition makes the economy exploitive, and it already has a name, crony capitalism. Crony capitalism can happen to markets of scarce resources as well as markets of creative products.
@@YummyFoodOnlyPlz I don't think we should destroy land ownership. But it would make a lot of sense to reduce income tax and increase taxes on landlords.
Destroying land ownership as if it's a bad thing? Please. It needs democratising. When 1% of the UK population owns over 70% of the land, tell me how that builds community? The only socially stability it gives is to keep the rich stable at their level on the top of society
The problem isn’t ownership of land, it’s access to land. Taxing land owners for “not farming it themselves” merely reduces the opportunity for others to pay a reasonable rent to farm it., and leads to sham farming agreements where large corporations eg Velcourt do the farming. The tax system is currently achieving the exact opposite of what it should be
Anecdotal = real world experience. Which is more real than an accumulation of data collected with bias. I never understand and ALWAYS laugh when people try to dismiss any input as insignificant by labelling it anecdotal. They think it makes them appear smart but I really think it makes someone look terribly stupid.
What an interesting guest. I don’t know why (perhaps because I’m in the Midwest of the US) but I’ve never heard of him. I’m so happy to now be ready to dig into his writings or comments more.
Perhaps this is some sort of cognitive dissonance on my part but Peirs Morgan is so inauthentic to me. He comes across as a cynical and manipulative slime ball, which makes anything he says difficult to take at face value. Though I will admit I have agreed with is opinion once or twice!
In Medicine, we regard anecdotal evidence, very highly in the form of case reports. If a patient has an unusual presentation of a certain disease, or if an unusual treatment worked on a patient, we write about it and publish it for our colleagues. Unfortunately, the case report has fallen out of a favor, and larger journals have put a premium on randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials, which are important knowledge their own right, but lack the hypothesis-generating power of a case report.
Of course there's a premium of double blind randomised trials. They're evidence that something works. Generating ideas for something to test (anecdotes,) is pretty easy. There are way more anecdotes than we have time to test for ..
I took your suggestion. This morning, I started to read Crime and Punishment. You are right. It's a page turner! I loved it from the first page. I loved -It's deviant to not back into a parking space. Haha.
![Dragons - Bande-annonce officielle VF [Au cinéma le 11 Juin 2025]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/YFudK_c-z8o/mqdefault.jpg)
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I'm looking forward to this one , Narcissism and the victim martyr narrative through various lenses is what has always gone wrong with society and always will , thinking you're good or doing good but in fact is the antithesis because of Narcissism
I just listened and really enjoyed this one. I think I just became a Georgist. Thanks!
Typical gaslighting psycho calls us (abusive term "woke") a narcissist??
Anyone who says they can't get totally behind anyone else's ideology is a breath of fresh air. Too many people blindly follow certain people without questioning anything they say.
Love you, Jew Grant!
What a lovely chap, genuine enthusiastic talker who actually says an awful lot without you realising until he moves on to another subject 😊 it made me giggle watching you trying to find a break in his enthusiasm x
I was thinking the exact thing. Poor Andrew trying to jump in but continues to get interrupted, so Andrew starts talking faster when he jumps in…
@@Stargazer-28ok 😂
@@Stargazer-28yep
I always end stating a similar thing, an interviewer that allows for free flowing discourse without the compulsion to interrupt. I have waited for this type of platform for an age. Andrew, thank you
Sad that you still haven’t found it!
Try Coleman Hughes or Brendan O’Neill.
Very Larry King!
Try Chris Williamson! He has much more gravitas and is much smarter than my guy here.
@@flissb6067 I would've loved to hear what Rory's aunt thought of the American south in the 1920's but Andrew had to but in with some inane comment.
Agreed, but I think Rory could have used a few more reminders to stay on point.
'I quite like people up to a point but wouldn't want to become wholly invested in their point of view'. Quote of the year for me 😃😃😃
Yeah. It resonates.
My godfather was an NYC homicide detective in the 70’s and 80’s, at a time when such a position could be achieved without a degree in criminal justice or the scientific aspects of crime. He solved quite a few high profile and even famous cases all through a combination of street smarts, intuition, and common sense. In today’s world, he’d barely rise above writing parking tickets. He feels that most major crimes in the Western world don’t get solved these days because they replaced men like him with woke college educated officers who couldn’t solve a crossword puzzle, much less a murder with little to no evidence prior to DNA technology.
The problem is, that in today's world - there's a complete lack of that combination of street smarts, intuition, and common sense your grandfather obviously possessed in the demographic who don't have the same employment opportunities he had. They're all brainwashed on social media and cossetted from life experience on every level - and actively avoidant of anything that might take them away from TikTok for five minutes. I know some kids still travel - but not to the extent I did at their age. They're all convinced of their "mental health" crisis - a self-fulfilling prophecy monetized by all the "mental health" experts on social media. It is a closed circuit of ignorance, entitlement and apathy.
The same thing happened in journalism. I think that journalism school destroyed journalism.
Sadly, modern education is so flooded with indoctrination that it's not the education that's needed. Our society was better off when we have people that use some basic sense and deductive reasoning to solve the problems that needed to be solved. Or basic civics in school anymore.
education is not the culprit. A fall in clearance rates happened around the rise of social movements that targeted policing. BLM etc.
Please thank your godfather for his service.
My brother was a police officer in the UK, now retired. His frustrations are similar.
These old school law veterans are an ignored, even maligned, asset, shamefully disrespected by the modernists.
I love this channel, a frequent reminder of how crazy the world is going - but also keeps me from joining the insanity through believing its the new norm
Posie also says something to the effect that milder and nuanced clearly hasn't worked and actually it's those people who have taken that approach who have helped to create the mess we're in because they've essentially been communicating to everyone that to be acceptable they too should dance around and walk on eggshells about the trans issue instead of simply coming out and telling it like it is, which would have made others feel like 'right if they can speak the truth in plain English then so can I'.
This is of course my wording but it in essence captures Posie's perspective.
Notice how Gold refers to Willoughby as "she".
QUEEN Posie ❤
Yes,you're can't be mild with constant idiocy,and as men we aren't as affected by trans "men".
I'm not worried about a woman dressed as a man in my private spaces or sports.
I think the one thing we're are as concerned about is the effect it has on children and young people.
@@winstonasmith9398 he doesn't have as good lawyers as JK Rowling 😂
There are a couple of very good reasons those approaches were tried before clobbering woke with aggressive tactics like lawsuits and government policy reforms (some nations are already at the point of government intervention, such as New Zealand after it's recent landslide election to vote in a government that ran on a strong anti-woke platform).
First is that we aren't generally against WHAT the woke are pushing for, we are against HOW they are doing it. As just one example, nobody reasonable cares if someone is trans, they do care about the implications of eradicating safe spaces for biological females and forcing upon our kids anti-intellectual, anti-scientific garbage about sex and gender with zero consultation of parents and the defamation of objectors.
In short, people have the right to do or be what they want until it interferes with the rights of others, at which point it becomes immoral and in some cases criminal. Social and legal regulations should always adhere to the concept of maximized benefit with minimized negative impact. The powers that be haven't just abandoned this concept, they publicly wiped their asses with it.
The second reason is that NOT being open to debate is a fundamental component of how critical studies operate. "Praxis" - the actual doing of a thing - is demanded by the core tenets of critical theory (yes, straight out of the communist handbook). You've likely seen it many times along the lines of "It isn't enough to be not racist, you have to be anti-racist", meaning you HAVE to engage in belligerent, aggressive activism or else you are still a racist. They aren't just totalitarian towards those they seek to cancel or silence, they are utterly authoritarian over their own as well.
It would be a very bad move to bring that concept over to the sane side of the culture war because not only would we be behaving just as immorally as they are, we would be actively restricting speech, thought and behavior in the same way the woke do.
All that said, I find it very hard to maintain such composure and not just wish to see the woke torn limb from limb by rabid dogs.
My favourite guest so far - a lovely man. Thank you both.
This is a guy who notices everything, remembers everything, and has an uncanny knack for integrating, reordering and expressing all that information.
Rory can go on for hours, and it might seem like a whole string of trivial points… but taken in aggregate, and with his humor, there’s a lot of lessons in there.
He's an absolute gem, the kind of guy that starts talking to you in a pub without invitation but by the end of the evening you're buying him pints because it's just so interesting.
@@superscatboyhahaha so accurate 👌
I loved the opening line to his Ted talk where he said "As an ad man, I'm more used to speaking at Ted Evil."
Excellent observation and spot on.
Rory seems lovely but almost "Wodehousian " ...in dress and demeanour and intelligence.
Wow Rory can talk. In a good way. My brain is 10 minutes behind him processing what he says.
Great channel allowing the guest to talk. Thank you Andrew. Keep up the great content. I’m a fan and recommend your channel to others.
The problem with trigger warnings today is,they're warning people like students about things that they should be able to withstand like opinions.
Great interview, I'd definitely like a pint or four with Rory!
Yea-!! Catering to the lowest common denominator brings everyone down. Don't give in.
Its not my responsibility to warn someone else's emotional sensitivities. An adult should be able to discern those things by themselves. I remember watching a video on reddit about a car accident & it showed the video. Someone in the comments said "You should have had a TRIGGER WARNING! I'm TRAUMATIZED" & the response was "well, it says in the TITLE "FATAL car accident, you should have assumed from the title it was NSFW".
Freaking ridiculous.
Trigger warning - 1936
A trigger warning used to be for people with epilepsy, not for 6ft children.
Child proofing the world instead of worldproofing the child...
About American tipping, I have become better at standing my ground on tipping. Rewarding one for outstanding service or product is one thing, but being told how much to tip and that it is the expected formula is BS. Merchants and their help aren't being paid enough to live on, so I need to pay extra to pick up the slack. No.
As long as customers keep accommodating these ridiculous rules, businesses will continue to under pay their employees.
In USA most restaurants are allowed to pay wait staff under minimum wage expecting tips to make up the difference. In some places tips are shared with managers! Tipping in USA was expected for restaurant sit down meals and hotel room cleaning staff at end of motel stay, parking attendants, bellhops who bring luggage to rooms, and airport luggage handlers at curbside. Who did I forget.
@WindTurbineSyndrome I tip the kids that help me take my groceries to the car on the days where I'm really not feeling well (chronic pain) even though the store policy states that tips are not part of their policy. If somebody is helping me out and being super kind then I'm going to show my thanks! But I think you got the basics covered with waitstaff and service staff!
@elizabethlanders9805 agreed! I love to give praise to people who work hard and step up to the plate. It's admirable and I want them to know that they are appreciated!
@@ry.butterflyI agree...Iike giving for exceptional service. Tbe person appreciates it and everybody wins.
Hotel will not distribute tips to staff. I know. I am in the travel business.
@jazura2 oh wow, I didn't know that! So if you leave a tip for staff at the desk they won't get it? I usually try to give the tip directly to the person themselves but if I can't then what is the best way to ensure they get it?
Top points for letting this guy speak and ramble a bit. He was fascinating to listen to and far too many interviewers feel the need to interrupt every 10 seconds. Great interview.
Regarding Mr. Rorys story about his brother and consumer decisions, there is a book called "The Paradox of Choice," and is about this very phenomenon. About how too many choices can lead to paralysis. If you have too many choices, it can leave you with the anxiety that you may have not made the right one. As opposed, if you only have 2 options, the chances of you making the incorrect choice are significantly reduced.
Also as a disabled person I agree with his point about people thinking they can speak for other groups. People thinking they can speak for disabled people if offensive and patronizing, and is further pushing us into invisibility. They usually don't know disabled people, the needs and issues we face. This is further made worse by the wheelchair token. When the majority of disabled people aren't in a wheelchair. For one, we aren't a race or community. A person with cystic fibrosis doesn't relate anymore to the blind more than anyone else.
Well said 👏👏👏
There's another way that having choices can lead to paralysis, and that is that you have to educate yourself about what the choices mean, and then whether you care about them. I remember the first time I went to the US, and I went to a coffee shop with a friend. When my turn came, the barista pelted me with a barage of questions about type of bean, type of roast, type of milk etc. Most of these I actually had no opinion about so I started asking the barista about the choices. I could sense the frustration from the people in line behind me, so in the end I just gave random answers. The coffee was perfectly decent, so I wasn't paralysed by the idea that my choices had been "wrong", just that I was being forced to make choices I didn't care about.
@@Guzunderstrop Yes, it's presumed that having a wide variety of choices is automatically a good thing. It isn't, informed choice is. Having a choice when you don't know the pros and cons is pointless, no matter how many options you have.
Your story is similar to what my partners parents experienced in the US concerning ordering a breakfast. The options concerning JUST what the fried egg was cooked in started with what type of oil. They answered olive oil presuming that would be it, but no. Green or black olives? Italian Greek or Spanish? Light or virgin? It soon got very tiresome for them having to chose every little trivial thing.
@@Guzunderstrop - I suppose you could have said to him/her : you choose
Maximizers vs Satisficers?
Wonderful conversation! Enjoying these in depth, long form interviews
Thank you!
💜
I do too. So very sick of people looking for simplistic answers for highly nuanced topics.
Yes yes yes ( she agreed for the algo)
This the first encounter I've had with Rory Sutherland and have to say I'm impressed with his pragmatic yet still nuanced views. He makes a great point about problem solving and argument winning are two very distinct skill sets that often don't overlap, yet we put the argument winners in charge of solving problems.
Rory is such an absolute character, isn't he!? You couldn't put a word in edgeways Andrew 🤣
All those questions you had prepared went out of the window: Rory follows his own train of thought. Another great episode, thank you! ❤
Genius interviewing. I'm being won over, Andrew.
@@elizabethlanders9805Doug Kramer on Dazed But Not Confused, smoked on air...before he recently died- from smoking....says the girl with the ciggy in her hand...
@@sunnyadams5842 How was this genius interviewing, out of interest?
Rory is great entertainment, but essentially he repackages the same set of stories he uses in all of his talks. He doesn't listen to the interviewer
I wonder what Rory Sutherland - as a marketing executive - thinks about our 'religious' cognitive dissonance: whereby we ban tobacco advertising on the Nation's TV screens; and yet have wall-to-wall advertising, to children, for GAMBLING? Is it not time for us to put the Gambling Companies back in their box?
I would more happily work on a tobacco account than a gambling account.
@@rory.sutherland Well said and written, Rory!
Australia has gambling ads on TV and at the end of the ad they say "chances are, you're about to LOSE" 😂😂
Funny they never have that disclaimer at the end of state Lottery ads though.
@@aidananstey9848 Exactly. There was a time when gambling - like lying - was regarded as a 'bad action'. Today both are indulged-in by the highest in the land! Relativism rules!
I think it comes from older people's unfamiliarity with technology. Most gambling nowadays is done on stock trading apps, cryptocurrencies, in video games, and it will take time for our 85 year old overlords to die and be replaced with someone who knows how to send an email, who may be able to understand these issues and create sensible policies.
Neither of you has really understood why GCs have become more extreme.
On the face of it, it sounds very reasonable interview more trans people.
But the ideology has become so dangerous (not merely toxic) to women, children, young people, and become so deeply engrained in our institutions, that many people have begun to feel we cannot maintain any flexibility in discussing it. We cannot continue to support something which is essentially a lie.
If the state can get you to believe that a man is a women, and enforce that belief, they will try to get you to believe anything. This issue is beyond "bathrooms".
Boehhooo spooky
GCs?
@ijustwannaleaveacommentony6511 gender critical
Yep. And I'm surprised, because Andrew has had Kellie-Jay on. I just can't with his pronoun parC.
Fascinating interview, and more digressions and tangents than I could possibly count. Thanks, Rory and Andrew
I feel like English people do use Yiddish. It seems fairly common to hear words like schmooze, glitch, nosh...schmaltzy. I hear people say "kosher" as well as a way of suggesting something is right or wrong, or even a bit off: "that doesn't seem quite kosher".
Yes, I'd forgotten about "nosh" that's very common.
These words have been in english for a very long time!
I was born and brought up in Cambridge (England) and didn’t realise how many Yiddish words I use til moved to Scotland. They understand most of the words I use on the Isle of Islay where I now live but I get a very puzzled look if I use the expression ‘Stay schtum’
I don’t have time for this mischegoss
It'd never occurred to me before that "glitch" is Yiddish.
Really enjoyed this, he is definitely one of my five at a dinner party. So interesting.
At a dinner party ? FFS
Andrew, Kelly Jay isn’t extremely gender critical, she’s campaigning to keep us women and girls safe. That is not extreme.
Sanity is extreme when everyone else is committed to the opposite
She's just normal. We need more normalcy.
Being "extremely critical" of something is NOT the same thing as being in some way socially or politically "extreme." Kelly-Jay Keene definitely IS extremely critical of so-called "gender ideology," and rightly so. So am I: so should we all be.
Absolutely right. The thing about the whole trans issue is that it is predicated on a completely false premise of 'nuance,' so called gender fluidity. Sex is binary. Men are men and women are women. As soon as you attempt to be nuanced in your argument you are rejecting reality. On the other hand, sexuality and desire CAN be fluid and more nuanced. The 'T' has nothing to do with the 'LGB'.
“I’m a big believer of reversing into parking spaces. Going in forwards, that’s deviant.”
🔥 HOT💀TAKE🔥
I must be a deviant. 😈
I cannot stand people who back into parking spots, ha! Hot take, indeed.
Women are deviant is what he is saying.
Yes you hold up everyone. Just drive in
This is SO HOW this "movement" has also become So fucking annoying...self-interest without a dab of enlightenment. I object to anyone's insistence upon me that I comply...but when someone quietly goes about something unique, I'll respect it all day!
Having lived in East Asia for a while, where tipping is discouraged, I loath the tipping culture in the USA.
So you aren’t a capitalist… Nor have you ever worked in the service industry.
Demonstrated effort, attentiveness, and being pleasant = MORE money. I assure you that a drive through worker will never have the same incentive as a server who NEEDS to provide good service to make good money.
Other than Japan- not sure where in East Asia I’d praise for their treatment of workers…
@@Smashthemadnessif you receive bad service in a US restaurant you're still expected to tip. In Ireland where tipping is not as prominent you (usually) get good service
Not a thing here in Australia - tend to pay decent wages instead.
Andrew @ ~1:03:40 he doesn't like tipping, and would rather go to a hotel that cost more without needing to tip housekeeping etc.
I've heard multiple examples from U.S. and Canada of restaurants saying just that, no tipping, we pay our staff more, you pay a little more. I see a story when they open and then again a few months later when they close.
@@Smashthemadness Do you ever give an extra optional tip on top of your mandatory tip? When the tips are not expected, they are different, yeah?
Sutherland makes an interesting point about reaching a tolerable degree of punctuality with trains. When I worked at Tesco (many years ago) they had a traffic light system (maybe they still do) for various in-store targets; red, amber, green and blue. Green meant hitting the target and blue meant exceeding the target. A blue light was intended as a warning. If a department was exceeding a target in a particular area then they had to make sure that they were not doing so to the detriment of other goals.
Wonderful conversation. Also the picture quality is amazing 🎉
1:17:00 indeed but to the earlier point... when dual incomes now are the minimum to purchase a property in the UK, removing the minimum square foot size of a property will have rightmove plastered with capsule apartments for £1200 a month. Then that becoming the norm. For landlords its amazing. Ive seen a 4 bedroom house converted into a 30 "capsule" rented space. Then at £40,000 a month income - families have zero chances to buy a house.
The jackets are incredible in this episode!
Your view on tipping was really interesting. I grew up in America, so I'm used to the tipping culture. However, I understand your point about the inauthenticity of the "customer service" face.
I think the switch from "customer service" to "resting" face may not be as strange to us, because lots of us have had customer service jobs (unless your family has money). We understand how much energy it takes to sell and give good service, so we're not really shocked by people needing to go back to their resting face. I think it might also be why we don't mind tipping a large amount if the service is good. We kind of remember being that person, so there's a small human-to-human solidarity present that can make people feel good to tip.
I say "we" here, but of course I can't speak for everyone. There's Americans who hate the tipping culture, too, for the very reasons you stated.
I expressed the desire to hear Rory discuss tipping, but I failed to get satisfaction here, both because the subject was diverted and because he takes a different approach.
Personally I think tipping is horrible, for many reasons. I don't want to have a nice dinner turned into an evaluation session for the performance I don't care about from someone I don't know. It's unpleasant because you feel like you're possibly short-changing someone who's a sort of institutionalized beggar; but you may also realistically be gifting a generous amount of money to someone who's eventually better off than you (a tourist from a poorer country) and isn't doing anything special.
American waiters are genuinely annoying to me; it's not the face expression, they're proactively intrusive and fake.
The passive aggressive pushing for higher and higher percentages is the icing on the cake of this absurdity.
The waiter is getting the good and the bad from an experience that is often not at all depending on him/her, but on other staff or issues with the place.
Final point: American clients are mentally trained to have a humble servant begging for a tip all the time, and that's probably the reason why American tourists are RENOWN for being impossible, whiny, demanding...
Two book recommendations for Sutherland (which I actually think he will enjoy if he has not read them already): 1) 'Superforecasters' by P. Tetlock, 2) 'Rationality' by S. Pinker.
'Superforecasters' very lucidly addresses precisely the sort of problem situation in which we have imperfect information and want to arrive at quantitative probability estimates. There are several important aspects to this. Firstly, historical "reference classes" for the kind of event being forecasted provide a lot of information: how rare is event-type A given B? Secondly, a lot of "Fermi estimation" is used - here you calculate a more complex numerical estimate using a series of simpler estimates, in hope that the errors in the sub-estimates will tend to balance out. Thirdly, forecasters are encouraged to regularly practice making quantitative probabilistic predictions that quantify their degrees of subjective credence, and using the feedback to "calibrate" themselves; it turns out people can get quite good at this, as measured by metrics of forecasting quality such as Brier-scores. But really the whole panoply of critical thinking skills are relevant to forecasting - good forecasters are unusually vigilant against bias, logical, and they often think explicitly in Bayesian terms, or make use of statistical techniques are mathematical modelling.
The general point is that the task of trying to reduce the complex and fuzzy world of grey uncertainties to precise numerical probabilities is not hopeless, and can actually be done with some success by those practiced in the relevant skills. But a pre-requisite - or, at least, a great aid - for developing these skills is being able to solve the kinds of "stupid" problems you will find in maths textbooks or logic puzzles where, implausibly, all of the information is available. Sutherland is quite right that this is a fairly different art from that practiced by research scientists, but it is the sort of thinking that is valuable in fields such as finance.
Pinker's 'Rationality' is a delightful book from which anyone can learn something. It is an excellent primer on some of the issues I have already mentioned - Bayesian inference, cognitive biases, basic statistics, etc. It also has a very good discussion of "decision theory", which, in conjunction with probabilistic thinking, deals in a systematic way with the problem of decision-making under uncertainty. If we make use of Bayesian thinking and optimal decision theory, we can be more precise about the sorts of questions which interest Sutherland - how much weight should we give to surprising new information? what should our evidential threshold for criminal investigations be? etc.
Thank you!
I’ve been following Rory’s work for a while, and this is by far the best Rory interview I have ever seen. Props to Andrew for a stellar job!
It's great to hear Rory advocating Georgism. We could settle so many political debates if we distinguished between productive business and exploitative rent-seeking.
This is the first time I've watched this channel....Brilliant!!
With respect Rory, your Peter Sutcliffe story is wrong. The police were alerted to his car due to false number plates and then he couldn’t tell them the name of his female companion who in fact was a sex worker and would’ve been his next victim. After the cops had got him out of the car, he told them he needed a wee. He went in the bushes and dumped his killing tools, a knife, hammer and rope, so when the police searched his car they didn’t find anything. He was arrested that night for the offences.
Back at the cop shop the police realised his likeness to the Yorkshire Ripper and began questioning him about that. The officers returned to the scene and found the tools he’d dumped the night before.
I’m a true crime fan and have a special interest in serial killers so I had to set the record straight.
As always I thoroughly enjoyed the whole episode and all the topics covered. I love the purple jacket Andrew! ❤
jojo you're absolutely correct. I vividly remember these details about the arrest of Peter Sutcliffe as well. Also, this was an episode with two wonderfully coloured jackets in it!
@@mardyroux8136 thanks and yes I agree with you on both jackets. ❤️
Amusing. A change from sometimes dull, other times irritating stuff that too often comes my way. A bit of humour makes a pleasant diversion or distraction from angry, holier than thou behaviour.. He reminds me of my brother, William, on a good day. I did Philosophy at Manchester. The department, which was closed down in the 1990s had an interesting history. The rift between real philosophy and relativist negative philosophers has long caused immense disputes across the country. Like the restaurant anecdote... it taught me more than what it could possibly do in the work itself. This applied particularly in the late 1970s. The dismantling of philosophy has been a social catastrophe.. the fact virtually no one was aware of what was happening is telling.
When I did philosophy at A level there were a total of only 4 people in the class
@@qlus Modern academic philosophy is close to useless- worse, it is destructive.
Shpiel and Schtum, but also latkes. Very rural upbringing (not Jewish) in deepest darkest Lancashire, but the Yiddish is still there!
The reason that TV advertising appears next to more graphic material than youtube advertising is because when commercial TV began in the UK, the government was concerned that advertisers would exercise control over the content of broadcasts as they already did in the US, so the sale of adverts was restricted to sale of advertising packages to be shown at the discretion of the broadcaster (this is also why sponsorship was not permitted until the 1990s).
RUclips defaults to the American system where advertisers have full control and naturally the government is too spineless and ineffectual to bring it into line with established British broadcasting practices.
troubleshooting a person (as a pretty good troubleshooter myself) takes association. Through compassion and empathy one can attempt to try to associate with another and in that association both agree to the causality of an issue to then be able to resolve it. As an IT tech I have found most of the time I am helping the person with the PC and not the PC with the person.
Honestly, I would listen to Rory Sutherland go on about any topic he chooses for ninety minutes. But the real gold in this interview was the empathic anxiety of watching Andrew attempting to get in his questions. Great stuff, as always.
Ordinary women are becoming more angry because our language is being bastardised, as well as women being in fear every day of losing jobs, our sports, our spaces and all we see is men winning womens awards etc and kids are being lied too 😢😢😢
First, men protected women.
Then women said they didn't need it.
Then women took it for granted.
Then women said they could beat men.
They women said they were better at everything.
Then women said men were useless.
Then women said all men were misogynist.
Then women said all men should die.
Then women refused to listen to anything men said.
Finally... men stopped protecting women.
Then women said men were monsters for not protecting them.
Then men stopped caring what women said!
@@bugsy742 grow up please
@@bertieboo nice gaslight! This is reality! Its childish to say otherwise
@@bugsy742 not it’s not, it’s a lazy caricature of the situation lacking any nuance.
@@joygibbons5482 laziness is to deny this because it means you have to be accountable!
This is something that makes me very angry. People worry about a word being some kind of ist but are silent about minority children being killed in Chicago from gang violence. They worry about a team name while the drug cartels invade American Indian Reservations. They can’t get any more police hired because of all the bureaucracy. There are five or six government agencies that oversee the reservations, they don’t work together and you can’t get anything done. If you want to help fix that.
I agree. Real issues are complex. Feds with all their insane need to keep all our digital data stored at NSA but real problems Americans experience are neglected or ignored. always money for war. The local police like the public schools are funded by town tax dollars. In my town they bought police all electric vehicle police cars at great expense. They don't work they constantly break down take forever to fix and they want gas powered ones but the town said no. So we have 5 working squad cars on road 24 hrs a day for a 50 sq mile town. We have to make changes locally. We have no power in Washington.
'The skill you need to solve problems and the skill you need to win arguments, they're not the same skill.' That sounds like what Plato said in The Republic. “In politics we presume that everyone who knows how to get votes knows how to administer a city or a state. When we are ill… we do not ask for the handsomest physician, or the most eloquent one.” As I've seen it translated elsewhere, the problem with democracy is that it elects people who are skilled at winning elections, not people who are skilled at governing.
6:58 Whether you go in forwards or park in reverse depends on where the pillars in the garage are. Always make sure that your driver side door is on the pillar-side. That way you have more room to open your instead of having to squeeze out because your door bumps into the car next to you. Nice tip for going in forwards: drive in aiming for one spot farther then your space. Then reverse while turning your steering wheel the other direction. Then your car is perfectly lined up to drive straight forward into your space. Very elegant move; Rory shouldn't knock it.
Great to hear someone openly a Georgist on something other than a Georgist podcast.
There are dozens of us!
This guy is brilliant.
Everytime I come across home I learn something new and find that I am not alone in thinking many of things I have thought.
Narcissism is the problem. Raised by narcissist parents and married a covert one. The sooner people who know about narcissist speak up the better. Education is the key to the way out of this.
You're Freud's wet dream
Found your channel a few days ago, have been steadily working through it. Absolute A+ content. You're going to be hitting 1 Million subs before the years done easily. Keep up the fantastic work!!
Great. He is like a firehose of creativity, love it.
Your heretic channel is usually far above my head. I listen and sometimes learn something I’ve never thought abt before. Other times I don’t understand a word.
American companies won’t distribute the extra money to their low skilled workforce unless and until they are forced to. This is why the minimum wage hasn’t risen and tipping culture is still in force
Minimum wage doesn't rise where there is a high competition for jobs (cheap labor.). What causes cheap labor? Illegals being allowed to flood across the border. The more people searching for the same jobs, the less those people will get paid. Supply and demand is basic economics.
Well it's more complicated than that. Back in 90s free trade agreements and push for globalism meant many manufactured moved to China and overseas. The only jobs available now are part time sales or retail jobs where the schedule changes weekly no guarantee if hours but unable to take a second job with hours shifting. No unions no opportunity to advance, no benefits. Many states are pegged to a minimum wage that was never adjusted for inflation. Work for hire laws meant workers had zero job security and were at the mercy of management. where I live aging workforce means elderly must work part time to pay their bills, their property tax. Social security they worked for thirty years ago is too low to live on today it's a third of what one person needs to live in a year. So there are lots of issues with the work force. Amazon has nothing but disdain for workers the govt finally explained to the corporate heads their business model meant they would have to hire every single person in America five times. They had no interest in long term employment that was their business model.
I love how he's able to integrate and explain information in an extremely cross discipline manner; references to algorithms, psychology, economics etc.
Andrew, that’s a beautiful purple jacket!
I’d love it if Rory had his own RUclips channel where he picks a subject and then talks off the cuff for an hour or two. I think that’d be extraordinarily popular and very entertaining!!
RORY SUTHERLAND'S mind is gargantuan, like a large comet making ripples through the cosmos. He is a psychological oracle, a wizard of human perception.
Yep! Agree! I wonder why your comment hasn't had a like before! Well, I liked it😀
I’ve been following Rory Sutherland for more than a decade. Thank you for this spotlight on him.
I understand what he says about tipping culture but the reality is - a lot of people don’t have the extra money to keep tipping everyone for good service. We may just have enough “for the thing” so next time out service will go down because they know we don’t ‘tip well’
i've been seeing random little clips from Rory's talks all over tiktok recently, thrilled to see him in this format!
One of your best Andrew!
Great interview. My sides were splitting when your guest kept talking over you and you were like ‘shut up’ and he says JC. Hilarious. Thoroughly enjoyed it.
Andrew, the Hotel/Restaurant is NOT going to distribute to the staff.
They will trouser your money.
In NYC min wage is $15/hour & not enough to live on anywhere & THAT is what staff will earn without tipping.
Cash is still King in NYC!
Sure they will, employers will pay whatever is needed to keep employees as long as it still makes sense for them too. But, they wouldn't pay more than it would cost to replace them. It seems people can't quite get past the notion that while you may think your time is worth a wage you can raise a family on, if there is a teenager that can do your job just as well for less it really isn't worth what you think it is.
‘Enshitification’ - What an amazing word - banked. Fantastic episode with a fantastic guest.
I always love listening to Rory but I do sometimes wish he'd finish more of his thoughts rather than getting distracted by another thought halfway through!
I love listening to Rory talk just because. He'd be a fabulous person to have a drink with in the evening in front of a fire and chat all evening about ideas.
The principle asset which has been lost (removed) along the way is the potential to "squat" long term empty and derelict properties lacking any restorative plans. The amount of revenue generated during the 70s and 80s from creative, entrepreneurial, imaginative people from multiple fields to pursue their skills and dreams without crippling overheads is underestimated today. Many billions were created by the people not pushed into fighting daily for financial survival on the way up.
The USA changed their bankruptcy laws and earlier Japan did. Not being able to wipe debt clean 100% anymore has seriously hurt entrepreneurial areas. The credit card companies force it through..
I discovered Rory by happenstance a few days ago and I can’t stop listening to the man.
Andrews humour and one liners are great when you have a guest who waffles too much.
Problem solving is logical thinking that can be directly tested. An argument needs a logical thinking process, but direct testing can be derailed by the erroneous thinking of the intended audience.
One of these erroneous thoughts is that a good problem solver shares no process with a good arguer. This is a very anti-intellectual idea...one that quickly devolves into an epistemological contradiction.
To be good at both you need to identify, integrate, then test your thesis. Feedback is essential for both, but the arguer has a tougher time getting to the intended result: if an arguer gets erroneous feedback from their audience (personal attacks, distortions, contradictions) they cannot "retest" the audience without addressing the personal attack, distortion, or contradiction *_FIRST._*
The problem solver can always make a change, test, make another change, retest...until the problem is solved or they simply give up. Feedback from one is direct, like temperature, speed, or size. Feedback for the other can be a logical counterargument, a lie, a threat, or a blank stare. 🤤
Rory is both an interviewer’s dream and nightmare. He’s fascinating and overflowing with great information and insights, but he will just talk and not allow others to get a word in, or he’ll cut them off and is quite unintentionally rude.
I know, it was driving me mad by the latter half. I really felt for Andrew.
Yeah I watched until the end for Andrews sake but wanted to leave early on.
@@YvonneBrisbaneI want to push this one through but I’m only 6 minutes in and already having a hard time.
**edit
Literally one minute later he had me. That was funny because super same and relatable. I’ll stick with it now.
@tinkercat8268 yes that would be why you were reading the comments. I did the same thing. Good luck and good on you for opening your mind watching and listening to interesting conversations.
@@Stargazer-28 rest easy and the fact that you can type right now is admirable. He’s not an easy person to keep up with for sure 😂😂
Feel better soon
Thank you for having Rory on! I have been following him for years and read his book Alchemy. He is a great thought leader. A very interesting man.
A lot of style in this video. Is it me, or are we going back to the 60s and 70s in terms of style?
Haha I’m just making it up as I go along.
@@andrewgoldheretics You look bloody brilliant. Keep it up 👍
Really enjoying these interviews Andrew. I’ve been a fan since your exorcism documentary, but these conversations are the next level.
Cheers!
I decided to give Seinfeld a go last year. Binged watched the whole thing. What a find!
Always a pleasure to hear Rory's perspective on things.
Hi Andrew ♥
I'm loving this new channel of yours.
Subscribed before I saw the first one, I knew it would be great.
Hope your having fun with Aaron ♥
25:30 Rory] "What do we optimize for in politicians? the ability to win arguments... ...now the skill you need to solve problems and the skill you need to win arguments, they are not the same skill - ok?"
There is a stage in childhood development, where if you have children that when they reach the age of about seven or eight where they actually begin to to *think* for themselves. [little girls are usually a little ahead of the little boys here] And, they almost inevitably fall into this false syllogism: 'If *I* can think it, it must be true *because* I can think it [or because *I* can think it] This is the first assertion of the neophyte ego. Many children, especially the most intelligent ones, especially girls these days, never progress intellectually beyond this neophyte stage of thinking. Some of us grow out of this particular stage because we been forced out of it.
These days we tend to refrain from allowing young people, especially young girls especially, from maturing intellectually because we are hesitant to allow them to experience intellectual humiliation - because that hurts. One of the possible consequences of being truly and utterly destroyed in an argument is the realization of the Truth of my argument *does not depend on me.*
I *know* I can be wrong, that as soon as I 'click' on the "Comment" button someone on this channel more intelligent and better informed than me *can hand my ass to to me.* I learned that lesson at about age nine - and it sucks - but at least I put in the effort.
Just to answer you, I know about chutzpah and schlepping and a smattering of Jewish words and phrases. I'm a Scottish Protestant in London. My flatmate 1990 to 92 taught me, but most people I know understand quite a bit. Also, coincidentally, I have just acquired Seinfeld seasons 1--6 for a re-watch.
:D
Can believe your interview with ms. Oliver was demonetized! It was such an important interview about what is happening to children and why we are not protecting them and leaving criminals on the streets. How we are protecting people that commit crimes and not victims.
I don’t find hot tubs at all aspirational. I don’t understand the attraction of sitting in a big bowl of human soup.
@joce11 my neighbours are in theirs wearing bikinis and drinking Prosecco! 😁
Love your jacket Andrew.❤😊
YES! 30:32 Rory is my new favorite intellectual because of his sound, genuine and SENSIBLE kindness. What a mensch!
This is thoroughly enjoyable : by the way since the public loos have disappeared one may use lavatories in cafes etc they are required to let you use them
Absolutely loved this Andrew, im loving this channel of yours thanks 👍🏼👍🏼
I was a cocktail bartender in both UK & NYC & I LOVE the USA tipping system.
Waiters & bar staff in NYC are World Class & many are Uni Grads & aspiring artists & actors.
Absolutely fabulous interview! Thank you! 🙏🏼
Yes! Reverse into all parking spaces unless there is no other option
Best line saved to the last minute 1:26:07...
New to the pod, loved this conversation!
The New York Son of Sam was caught on a hunch by a detective when he, SoS, was issued a parking ticket.
Surely we don't employ politicians to solve problems. Civil servants do that. The politicians argue for the right to solve problems in a particular way and always have done.
Interesting but going off on a lot of tangents that were hard to keep up with 😂
This is my favorite new media guy, He's brilliant.
Destroying land ownership with taxes is anti-conservation, anti-agriculture, and destructive of social stability. Without attachment to land, people lose their attachment to community.
@@differentname5867the distinction Rory coined here is unnecessary. It's less about whether the economy is "creative" or not, it's about whether free market competition exists or not. Where the economy is controlled by very few entities, ie. monopoly or oligopoly, lack of competition makes the economy exploitive, and it already has a name, crony capitalism. Crony capitalism can happen to markets of scarce resources as well as markets of creative products.
@@YummyFoodOnlyPlz I don't think we should destroy land ownership. But it would make a lot of sense to reduce income tax and increase taxes on landlords.
Destroying land ownership as if it's a bad thing? Please. It needs democratising. When 1% of the UK population owns over 70% of the land, tell me how that builds community? The only socially stability it gives is to keep the rich stable at their level on the top of society
@@YummyFoodOnlyPlz Capitalism IS CRONY by its own logic, what do ypu expect?
The problem isn’t ownership of land, it’s access to land. Taxing land owners for “not farming it themselves” merely reduces the opportunity for others to pay a reasonable rent to farm it., and leads to sham farming agreements where large corporations eg Velcourt do the farming. The tax system is currently achieving the exact opposite of what it should be
I love this. It's just 2 intelligent people having a good natured, light hearted, free flowing conversation.
Anecdotal = real world experience.
Which is more real than an accumulation of data collected with bias.
I never understand and ALWAYS laugh when people try to dismiss any input as insignificant by labelling it anecdotal. They think it makes them appear smart but I really think it makes someone look terribly stupid.
exactly. Anecdotal is single data point, but it's a real one, and lots together lead to a hypothesis that can then be tested.
@@miff227 precisely!
What an interesting guest. I don’t know why (perhaps because I’m in the Midwest of the US) but I’ve never heard of him. I’m so happy to now be ready to dig into his writings or comments more.
Perhaps this is some sort of cognitive dissonance on my part but Peirs Morgan is so inauthentic to me. He comes across as a cynical and manipulative slime ball, which makes anything he says difficult to take at face value. Though I will admit I have agreed with is opinion once or twice!
Agreed 100%, he's always struck me as false, insincere and immensely manipulative.
I love this man! What a great interview. Talks infinite sense!! Thanks Andrew
In Medicine, we regard anecdotal evidence, very highly in the form of case reports. If a patient has an unusual presentation of a certain disease, or if an unusual treatment worked on a patient, we write about it and publish it for our colleagues. Unfortunately, the case report has fallen out of a favor, and larger journals have put a premium on randomized, double blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials, which are important knowledge their own right, but lack the hypothesis-generating power of a case report.
Of course there's a premium of double blind randomised trials. They're evidence that something works. Generating ideas for something to test (anecdotes,) is pretty easy. There are way more anecdotes than we have time to test for ..
Douglas Hofstadter - I am a strange loop. Very illuminating and one of the best books I've ever read, even 18 years later.
Andy Serkis has let himself go a bit!
🤭
😂
I took your suggestion. This morning, I started to read Crime and Punishment. You are right. It's a page turner! I loved it from the first page. I loved -It's deviant to not back into a parking space. Haha.