A word to the camera guy: show us the slides/presentation, not people's faces. The importance is about the data and info being talked about and not audience's reaction or the speaker's face.
Considering nearly all were ethnic Chinese their facial expressions and attention etc are actually very important things to keep an eye on. Reading even resting body language tells you more than a slide can.
@@SamtheIrishexan not the info we need tho. unless you want info about how asian people feel about this... and, besides that; its quite funny you think thats 'asians' all and want the same thing. im sure south koreans for example will kinda love china loosing a bit. and they are not alone.
The issue isn't with the camera man; there's a fixed camera that captures the entire screen quite clearly. The problem lies with the person who edited this video, who seems overly fond of showing his face.
Unfortunately the Chinese fishing fleets are now spreading far and wide in their locust mentality. They have used up their own resources and they are beginning to steal from everyone.
@@JohnDoe01 That's being too simplistic. What is The Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)? It is a maritime zone where a coastal state has sovereign rights over natural resources, such as fish, offshore oil and gas, and other marine resources, up to 200 nautical miles (370 km) from its coastline. This zone is established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 1982.
He is so-called China expert who doesn't speak Chinese and has never been to China. He is making money by selling his fake information about to the brainwashed guys.
Everyone invested in the country chasing dollar signs now they're finally realizing China is just stealing their intellectual property and selling it at half the cost, pushing them out of the market. Anyone who wants to open business in China is blind, deaf and dumb
Don't celebrate too early. A declining China could be far more dangerous and unpredictable than an ascending one. War is still a possibility as declining nations could use aggression to hold onto power, and there's a lot that could change in the coming years. Stay vigilant. Long live Democracy and Freedom!
Hmm democracy can be improved, get rid of the vote of bad people (extreme lack of ambition, criminals, don't pay much in taxes). China also supports democracy in that they want to help southeast asia and latin america and africa grow with infrastructure, actually ask people from there not from western lens what they think of China.
I agree. If there is a collapse or deterioration of the communist rule in China, coupled with lots of Chinese still not enlightened to the idea that every single being is his/her moral agent that can exercise his/her free will, still pined for a good leader and refused to accept the idea the political system, which emphasizes collective effort and conformity, is the problem itself, can create a perfect storm for disaster. The present system discourages free thinking and encourages group-think and toeing the state propaganda. As a result, they relied on the concept of reverse-engineering, parlaying the size of its economy to request/demand technology transfer from the trading partners to modernize itself and claimed the credit that all these advances were home-grown without relying on others to bolster the nationalistic fervor. Or worse, stealing the advanced technology through espionage or bribing Chinese working in corporations in the USA. Now the jig is up, lots of companies that bow to the pressure of selling the technology to China regret their past decisions. Coupled with the declining population growth, enormous national debt, municipal debt, and the biggest housing bubble in history with a surplus of housing units that can house all of the people in India and the withdrawal of foreign investment, I cannot see a scenario with a good ending. Contrary to the Chinese propaganda, the impending economic collapse is self-inflicted (housing bubble and covid-19).
Dude, I studied China relentlessly and came to this guy's conclusion 6 years ago. People told me I was crazy, but I knew China had already reached its apogee.
China is looking to start a war with the West to fulfill it's plan to destroy the US and destroy democracy, to rescue China's failing economy, and to fulfill China's territorial ambitions in the Far East. Read "Unrestricted Warfare", the PLA's own manual for how to destroy the US over the longterm China, for much of it's history, specifically during the Warring States Period, was a master at scheming the downfall of it's neighboring countries, pretending to be friendly and benign, then striking when an opportune time arose China's 2049 goal is the total control and domination of the world, with China as the sole superpower in the world. According to their hilariously false worldview, China is reclaiming it's rightful top spot after being the top dog for thousands of years. But if China was the top dog for thousands of years, how come 95% of scientific discoveries come from the West? They seem to forget about the Persian Empire, the Greeks, and Roman Empire, all of which was stronger and more advanced than China. China was only the top dog during the Tang, Song, and Ming Dynasties.
A huge nation, 3rd in the world in size and 2nd in population, with some 40,000 KM of high-speed train, the world's largest exporter of vehicles and a 2024 trade surplus of a trillion dollars is portrayed as weakening by this stxux pid person. An unbelievable level of stuxpx idity of a man with a suit talking on a stage to an audience . Shame.
@Hay8137g Look up the Visual Capitalist’s global net migration of high net worth individuals diagram. Rich people are fleeing China and Russia like crazy and flocking to: the UAE, USA, Australia, Switzerland, Greece, France, Canada, etc.
@Hay8137g Look up Visual Capitalist’s global migration of high net worth individuals. The rich are FLEEING China and flocking to the UAE, Australia, USA, Greece, France, etc.
@Hay8137g No. Look up Visual Capitalist’s global migration of high net worth individuals. The rich are FLEEING China and flocking to the UAE, Australia, USA, Greece, France, etc.
The theory of China's economic collapse has been around for decades, with its roots tracing back to the late 1980s and early 1990s. This period saw significant political and economic changes globally, including the dramatic shifts in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Many in the Western hemisphere believed that China, as a socialist country, would follow a similar path. One of the most notable proponents of this theory is Gordon G. Chang, who published "The Coming Collapse of China" in 2001. He predicted that China would collapse by 2011, a prediction that has since been proven wrong. Despite these repeated predictions, China's economy has continued to grow and evolve, defying the collapse theories. Now, the debate continues, but the evidence so far suggests that the "China collapse" theory has not materialized as predicted.
The argument being made in the lecture is that the Chinese economy is likely to decline, not necessarily collapse. To conflate this lecturer's argument with Changs is purely a straw man fallacy.
If China is so awesome, why does the CCP impose limits on the amount of capital that can leave the country? If it was so good, why do you need to keep the money prisoner there? Wouldn't the money want to be there if it was so great in China?
The Rich people don't want to pay their taxes O_o. BTW America also has a lot of policies that prevent people from going overseas because they will be double taxed...
He's far from the only one saying these things. Just looking at the numbers, a lot of it is obvious. Demographics is hugely important. It's easy to grow when you emerge from nothing, have endless cheap labor, and take on a lot of debt, all at once. That has driven Chinese growth. No one can argue that can go on indefinitely. But predictions are predictions. Some end up being more accurate than others, and no one gets everything right. I'd bet he's off in his timescale. Overall though, a very insightful presentation that makes so much sense.
@@quicksilver0201 To some degree it does. Robots don't go home and cook and clean, and take care of parents though, or pay taxes, or do charity work, or serve in the military, or ? I decided to look up which nation leads in automation - automation density. From, International Federation of Robotics: Korea does, by far. Almost four times more than China. China is ninth on the list. The U.S. is higher than China. But that was 2020 data. China is probably above the US now.
As the presenter of this talk says, the problem is that as China's growth slows and even goes into reverse, this will make the CCP leadership more desperate and aggressive, not less. The window of opportunity for it to conquer places such as Taiwan and assert itself is narrowing; with so much turmoil around the world it may choose the next few years to strike.
you can tell it true when you see so many mainland Chinese come to AMerica illegally. Where i live they are so many mainlander now. They left China for a reason.
@@altran1125 Chinese aren't even in the top 5 nationalities entering the US and in fact we are currently seeing a reverse brain drain from Chinese Americans scientists that are going back to China.
@@altran1125 25,000 Chinese entered illegally, while there are 94,000 illegal indians - so india must have collapsed already !!! You are just frustrated that there are Mainlanders in your community.
This is one of the best presentations I have ever seen on economic influence on geopolitical events. Tying the threads together lets us see what could be the future. At the same time in the US, we have some of the same circumstances developing. These events are pointing to a 3rd WW. It will be catastrophic
Hmm, there are a lot of gaps though. Like don't they know that China is building up their military to counter the blockade not the reverse, and the size of Chinese military should be done by an independent country since American rich guys are threatened by China (btw not normal Americans). Most of Southeast Asian countries are still positive about China (Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, Indonesia, even the Phillippines). If Chinese were really more nationalist, why do they do tanping and have so few children. Look up cosplay Bangkok, Hanoi, Manilla, etc... and see that nearly half of the cosplayers are cosplaying characters from Chinese IPs like Genshin Impact, etc... The "Uyghur genocide" in the UN was voted against by a lot of nations including nations from Turkestan and 11 out of 12 Muslim nations voted against it, mostly Western nations voted for it. a
As a Neighbor of China we in India are keenly watching the Development. Thanks for presenting your Perspective based on Facts. However it will be a mistake to underestimate China.
@@shantakaram1 China culture is peace and harmony to all. China just wants to live and enjoy the fruit of their labour unrestrained but if you think that is a sign of weakness then you are so wrong. When China decide to act against what you want to take away from them that’s where they will go all out to take you on and neutralises your threat soonest
What facts? This is pure anti-China propaganda. Most of the Chinese reactions are due to the unfair American actions. The USA talks a lot about democracy, but acts worldwide a dictator. How do you really think that Japan, South Korea, Netherlands stop selling chips and technology to China They were threathened. You don't obey there will be economic consequences. America plays this dirty trick all over the world.
China is still going to want to collect on those loans where they took advantage of poor and corrupt countries. Ive seen first hand how they would gain contracts by bribes then bring in 20X the amount of ExPats that an American or European company would to construct and operate the facilities, because the imported actual construction workers nit just supervision. And the payrates that they paid the locals were 1/3 of the payrates they would get when working for American Companies and 1/2 of European companies. Dont even get me started on how they treated the environment, basically shiite all over it.. While American and European companies tend to maintain the same standards as they do at home. This is same for Environmental as well as Safety programs
But China has already taken more from the poor countries Resources to make the repayment which was exactly what they were aiming for, so they have lost that right and the poor countries have finally woken up and realised what China was doing.
Wheel of life is like a ferris wheel. U r up in the clouds once, gradually move down to its lowest. Sometimes the wheel moves up again, but sometimes it just freeze. At other times the riders just leaves the wheels.
since 1972 when Nixon reached out to China and made alliance, it had been 54 years. China was dirt poor and GDP per capital ranked behind many nations. China was a 100% socialist structure. China GDP was $113 billion and per capital was $132. That is average Chinese per year for $132. Fast forward to 2012, $8.53 trillion and $6300 per capital. Xi in power in 2012, last 10 years, China GDP almost double and per capital almost double, estimate in 2024, $18.273 trillion and $12969 per capital. The number speak itself. In 2013, China started The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI or B&R), known in China as the One Belt One Road and sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reached over $1 trillion in cumulative investment. 9 years later today, this one trillion have huge return. How could you not talk about this when you talk about China economy?
Wrong on everything . China pre existed usa by 20000 years china was neither poor or struggling . Usa lost to China in Korea and again in Vietnam . Nixon reached out bcz he knew China will rise and usa will fall . Chinese don't earn in dollar . They earn in yuan. Being socialist is what made china rise . No matter how much anyone tried . China kept rising. Xi jin ping was approved through party support . Every member of Ccp is elected . China kept supporting nations to develop . The fruits of belt and road helped nations to develop Bcz china is a victim of colonialism
I've read that China's gdp growth rate will slow down to 3% by 2030. Given that it will continue to slow down and the US has maintained a consistent 2% growth for decades, China will never surpass the US economically.
Very enlightening to grasp the changes taking place in the situation of China and implications to the future of China and geopolitics and other countries relying on China's growth.
do you think that India can replace China? and if India rise too much, will the USA not also do the same to punish India? will India's rise be the next USA target when their elections come? we have to think about these things
@ 2005- Gordan Chang(American Lawyer/Political Commentator) 2006- Wolfgang Lutz 2009- Many analysts and economists predicted chinas economy decline due to the financial crisis. 2010- Gordon Chang(Again) 2012 - Gordon Chang(Again) 2013 - Gordan Chang ( Again) 2015 - Yi Fuxian (Demographer)
@@jimmyclemons3268 Goldman Sachs projected that by 2050 China economy will 41.9 T. As per the World Fact Book, China's GDP(PPP) in 2023 was 31.227 T, so their economy will continue to grow, not shrink as per this propagandist.
These people are Korean. Really revealing how comments like that pretty much shows how this anti-China rhetoric attracts people who hate Asians in general. I find this disgusting.
I do not understand howslowing down Chinese economy will increase other countries ecnomies. For example China is one of the Major Trding partner for Australia for Mine products such as copper coal etc. If they slow down definetly Australia's ecomnomy will slow down too. I do not think this man is correct. China is coming up with lots of electric cars and their industry for Solar panels are used in many countires. I think by enforcing tariffs on China US will have more Impacts.
China is also a leader in AI patents, by far. There is a possibility that they make the next big break throughs, and if they do then who knows what happens really.
Hasn’t the same thing you describe about China happened in the US already? Except China has at least modernized themselves. The US has not. Look at our roads, infrastructure, and manufacturing base.
The speaker's work consisting of a book titled Unrivaled: Why America will remain the world's Sole Superpower and articles like "No one Should want to see a dictator get old" tells you all you need to know about the Foreign Policy Research Institute which he works for. He is about as neutral as the infamous beloved China pundit Gordon Chang who has been living off the "success" of his book written 25 years ago called The Coming Collapse of China. The power of BS is amazing to say the least.
Here is a fact that prof. Beckley didn't clearify. We Taiwan is already an independent country for a really long time. China CCP has never ever ruled Taiwan or inherited it from any regime.
It doesn't make any sense whatsoever that a lecture that makes a case that everything about a country is negative, moreso one that has achieved such an economic miracle in such a short time in the history of mankind, and without any violence - relatively so to speak. What credibility do you have to speak on the matter. We want to hear from the Chinese to understand how they did it, and what they plan to do given their current challenges with aggressive ecpnomic competition with other powers. I've never seen such a poor job at propaganda in a long time. This guy never understood his assignment. This is not the way to demonize a country if you wanted anyone to believe you. Same mistake with the US democratic party. Say something too many times within your echo chambers and you start to believe it yourself. Despite the issues with China's economic
Very good summary? Another way to look at it. Chicom China is a huge Dutch tulip bubble. Every investment public and private was built on spec for the future. They were borrowing from the future. Consumption is also from the future. This is multiplied by layer after layer. The most obvious examples are the empty skyscrapers and malls with no occupants. Another example is the highway to nowhere. Other countries tacked on. This enormous balloon is bursting. Alas the higher you go, the harder you fall 🥹😱
China is not dying and its economy will not be slowing down. Do you know which one will be collapse in the future? You bet! Which one has the most debt now? I am worrying the banks here in this country. Whichever spend too much money will be the one who fails its economy!
@@BandMtrippin The US had absolutely NO problems investing and getting filthy rich in China. Even now, the are many more American companies in China, than you can think of.
CCP chinas debt is now higher than the USA and many of their countries they have loan to will not be able to repay and they’ll turn on China and keep and use these resources in South America we may have a president who brings in the Monroe Doctrine and all those countries will put tariffs on China KARMA
Yes, America is great. especially when they have people like you to analyse it in details for them. In Malaysia, we have kangkung professor. Much similarities.
Despite issues with China's foreign trade and development assistance approach, it has still performed better in lifting other countries out of poverty and advancing economic mobility for developing countries than the exploitative approach of competitor powers. Trade between most with China has eclipsed that of the West and continues to do so. I continue to believe that the only pathway to outcompeting China on influence is to present and deliver on alternative and better bilateral trade and cooperation with developing countries than what China offers. Not in terms of propaganda, but real results. We live in different times. Strategic Information asymmetry has narrowed and will continue to do so. I believe lectures like these have more negative effects to their goal of making a case against China than positive and further heightens distrust in the global south. One key question - which countries in the global south have been supported to advance from poor economies to advanced economies or is the plan to ensure that no one ever does?
The west will never be able to "out-compete" China, vis a vis assisting the Global South. With it's history of colonialism, imperialism and racism, they will never see the "less developed" as equal, whereas China does. At the last G7 summit, they established "build back better, world", whereby the G7 will buy infrastructure in the Global South, and charge people a fee, for using their own infrastructure, so the G7 companies can make a profit. The Chinese companies in Belt & Road are state owned companies, not profit-obsessed one, which seek win-win collaborations, not the win-lose ones, of the G7.
Very easy to grow rapidly when all the greedy western capitalists devastated their economies and their citizens/countrymen to throw money at China. Its a zero-sum game. You think Mao or Deng would have done any of this on their own???
Everything I've heard is nothing I havent already heard from day to day news. There's not much substance, everything is at a high level, and there's a lack of insights on specific areas discussed. He's probably never been to China.
A good tying up of all the diverse threads in the world today. I think Michael is on the right track. Certainly it helps explain, to me as a citizen of a South East Asian country, China’s action in the South China Sea (really needs to be re-named!) of late! Makes a lo5 more sense now! Also, Trump’s election win was not factored in as it transpired after this talk, so the actions of the United States moving forward would certainly be most unsettling to China’s bargaining position!
You deserve a better country to live in. Move out of China as soon as possible while it's not too late. With the support of the us, there're more countries are booming. Like India, Vietnam, Philipine etc. There are tons of opportunities waiting for you. Take care of yourself, bro. ❤❤❤
@@user-nm5dp8ky9eChina is 5-6 times the size of India in terms of economy. Vietnam is 1/4 the per capita GDP of China. Where can you find a better place than China?
This is highly debatable. China is already dominant in so many areas- trade, finance, technology. If Trump thinks he can tariff away, he is badly mistaken. It will boomerang back on Americans with a blowout in price rises. The Trump tariffs in 2019 and ones imposed by Biden 2 years later hardly made a dent in imports to the US. In fact imports for some goods actually increased. And meanwhile, China is shifting its trade and currency management strategy to reduce its reliance on America. It has already brought its imports from the US down to 7%. Meanwhile America’s reliance on Chinese goods is about 30%. It will continue to rely on Chinese goods as many of its made in America goods depend on Chinese components, some goods as high as 50%. It’s very amusing to hear of Americans insisting they only buy American. So someone said boldly that American should bring the production of these components home. Maybe. But take note that American companies have to reinvent the technology to produce those components, technology in which China is already streets ahead of the rest of the world. It may not be cost feasible at all. China losing its dominance? I hardly think that. China also holds a large chunk of America’s USD38 trillion debt, and itself holds USD3.5 trillion of dollar reserves. It’s a major lender to America. In fact it can even compete with the Fed by issuing sovereign bills in dollars to finance the rebuilding of its own economy and offer competing rates against the Fed,forcing the Fed to offer a higher yield. That will be interesting when the US budget deficit balloons again in 2025 as Trump reduces corporate tax rates.
2 weeks into the Trump presidency, China has already fired its first salvo and shaved off 1 Trillion in the US stock market and put the future of US tech in jeopardy.
Free Tibet Free Inner Mongolia Free Xinjiang/East Turkistan Free Northern Vietnam and Paracel Islands Free Manchuria Free Hong Kong Free Jimmy Lai Free the good people of China Free Falon Gong Free the Uyghurs Free Pooh Bear And keep Taiwan and Indo Pacific region Free Free from the evils of the CCP
His analysis is very good but one major part his missed out is the internal situation. China's internal problems are far worse and immediate to the CCP than anything else. After Chinese New Year 2025 there will be massive layoffs which may spark something off.
The problem with most of the Western intellects is that they tend to build a great looking chain of reasoning - only with a few links missing or skewed. This guy too had a few idiotic statements like claiming Ukrainian annexations to be a consequence of Russia becoming a peaking power. The fact being it is a consequence of deliberate aggressive NATO expansion and Russia containment strategy. Similarly he must be too ignorant to claim China became a fascist because of peaking its power in 2010s. It was a fascist rogue regime since the day Mao undemocratically took over the country since1940s, by brutally massacring millions of innocents and continue to do so, all these years. Give us a break man.
There will surely be casualties on both sides of a war. But massacring millions of innocents? Where does this figure come from? Which country would massacre millions of its own people? It was only during the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression that tens of millions of Chinese civilians died. Even the real fascist, Hitler, didn't massacre his own people.
NATO expansion is a propagandist term coined by Kremlin, what actually happened was most of all Russia's neighbors had reasonable fear of being attacked by Russia, as it had repeatedly happened before, therefore they all applied to join NATO. Some of other neighbors that did not, were in fact attacked by Russia, that includes Ukraine and Georgia. Learn history and do not spread Putin's propaganda. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
How can NATO expansion be called aggression: every country that has joined NATO has done so by choice. They were not coerced or pressured, they see the logical economic and security benefits of siding with a more stable partner - the EU and US - as opposed to a corrupt dictatorship in Russia trying to hold onto the past. If these countries did not feel threatened by Russia, they would feel no need to join NATO.
@ I like that one. Though,,,, we appear to have a problem with the truth being allowed to circulate. The delay is holding humanity back. But,,?im with ya
This speaker, Michael Beckley is from American Enterprise Institute , one look at who funds them -Lewis H. Brown: Founder and former CEO of Bristol-Myers. Charles Koch: Chairman and CEO of Koch Industries. David H. Koch: Executive Vice President of Koch Industries. Robert K. Steel: Former CEO of Wachovia Corporation and Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance. John Thornton: Former President and CEO of Goldman Sachs. What a laughing stock why would they not want to promote propoganda benefitial to americans? lmao america is getting seriously ill
😏A breaking news I been hearing since 2007⁉️ Novices and Funny wishful thinkers best describes western economists academicians‼️ Lots of craps and jingoism loaded hopes could make a better topic.
the discussion should be put in context by comparing chinese economic performance and demographics with that of india, japan, taiwan, s. korea and vietnam. in particular, slowing population growth, aging workforces, and slowing economic growth are issues in most of east asia. china is unique mostly in its type of governance, which can change depending on the thinking of the central committee of the CCP.
Questions： 1. Has this gentleman ever been to china？or at least been to China recently? 2. Does he know the fact that China generated and consumed 9.3 trillion kw power and US only generated and consumed 4.2 trillion kw power in 2023？ 3. Does he know China has the most industrial robots in the world （robot density ranked 3 ）？ 4.Though he is a fluent English speaker ，does he know how to counter his fingers. I mean does he have the basic training in counting numbers？
If he did do you think he would be saying this? 😂 Steve Hsu just realeased a video a few days ago, he's impressed as hell, the upper echelons of Chinese intelligentsia have an undisturbed quiet confidence that the rise is inexorable.
Apreciate the viewpoints. Given China’s economic rise is anomalous do these metrics apply? As they make a shift from lower value items to higher value items like Semiconductor,EV,Green Energy that requires massively increased Capex, headcount/initial lower Productivity and a non linear learning / development curve wouldn’t we expect anomalies in these metrics? Just a question.
You got to give China points for not invading other nations and sucking their oil or wealth, when they r seeing a decline in their fortunes. Ahemmm…..the Americans and Europeans would pretend not to hear that 😊
The United States has never been an empire-builder like the European nations. No one would say, 'The Sun never sets on the American Empire'. The biggest American war is still the American Civil War. That was when American cities were flattened, and 600.000 Americans lost their lives. The United States was the big winner from both WWI and WWII. It never wanted in to either of those conflicts. Since WWII, it has been a global peacekeeper.. That's a role that cost many American boys their lives in wars they didn't understand or care much about. The average American doesn't understand the benefits of America's position. There are benefits. We feel like our British cousins before us. We'd build a wall and quit the job. American leaders and the educated class fear that ending the American Century will result in subjugation.
@@frederickwelsh Peacekeeping by US = Decimating nations who american believe is evil. Peacekeeping by US = waving war in Middle East and developing US in expense of other countries.
@@frederickwelsh Old fashion colonial is in-efficient, US dominates the world through US dollar, financial colonial is much efficient and better ways to do it. US is only war free for 17 Years since founded. Ask yourself at heart, why US need 750 military bases across the world? To ensure US empire rule the world.
With 800 military bases around the globe, that makes it an imperial hegemon. The biggest single conflict was the genocide of the Native Americans totalling at least 20m. They werent even worthy of being counted, unlike the greatest act of animal cruelty, the mass slaughter of the American Bison, totalling over 100m. And the US fully partook in the Transatlantic slave trade and the Opium trade in China, and we're leading participants in the Eight Nation Alliance. Fully colonised the Philippines and instigated the wars in Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia resulting in over 20m deaths. Played both sides in the two World Wars and had a hand in every conflict in Latin America, all part of its Monroe Doctrine. And since 9/11, involved in several wars of aggression based on nothing but lies. Today, the American Empires proxy war in Ukraine, full support of its chief allies genocide in Gaza, and spoiling for conflict along with its vassals Taiwan and the Philippines, makes it the most destructive empire in history, not that fairytale yarn you just spun.
A word to the camera guy: show us the slides/presentation, not people's faces. The importance is about the data and info being talked about and not audience's reaction or the speaker's face.
Considering nearly all were ethnic Chinese their facial expressions and attention etc are actually very important things to keep an eye on. Reading even resting body language tells you more than a slide can.
No their disapproval was my favourite part (although FYI a fair few of them are Korean who are not disapproving)
@@SamtheIrishexan not the info we need tho. unless you want info about how asian people feel about this... and, besides that; its quite funny you think thats 'asians' all and want the same thing. im sure south koreans for example will kinda love china loosing a bit. and they are not alone.
The issue isn't with the camera man; there's a fixed camera that captures the entire screen quite clearly. The problem lies with the person who edited this video, who seems overly fond of showing his face.
@@SamtheIrishexan No, those are korean people. lol
The Philippines and its people are Right to protect the Fishing RIGHTS AROUND ITS LAND!!
Fascist China simply don't see you as people, that's quite dangerous for both sides.
Unfortunately the Chinese fishing fleets are now spreading far and wide in their locust mentality. They have used up their own resources and they are beginning to steal from everyone.
Because being around its land, then the lands around it are Phil? Nonsense.
@@JohnDoe01 That's being too simplistic. What is The Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ)? It is a maritime zone where a coastal state has sovereign rights over natural resources, such as fish, offshore oil and gas, and other marine resources, up to 200 nautical miles (370 km) from its coastline. This zone is established by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) in 1982.
you're nonsense@@JohnDoe01
Michael grew up across the street from me. Unbelievable, now look at him.
He is an excellent speaker, isn’t he? Good to learn something from him as you are neighbors.
Yeah his war mongering speaker
Wat? A ponce?
He struggles to make a living by tell some lies intentionally or unintentionally, like most students in his majors across the world.
He is so-called China expert who doesn't speak Chinese and has never been to China.
He is making money by selling his fake information about to the brainwashed guys.
Its not a push back, simply its the other countries taking back their factories because of massive intellectual property violations.
😂😂😂😂
Everyone invested in the country chasing dollar signs now they're finally realizing China is just stealing their intellectual property and selling it at half the cost, pushing them out of the market. Anyone who wants to open business in China is blind, deaf and dumb
They stolen billions in tech from us.
Don't celebrate too early. A declining China could be far more dangerous and unpredictable than an ascending one. War is still a possibility as declining nations could use aggression to hold onto power, and there's a lot that could change in the coming years. Stay vigilant. Long live Democracy and Freedom!
Yes, that is what he is saying as well.
Hmm democracy can be improved, get rid of the vote of bad people (extreme lack of ambition, criminals, don't pay much in taxes). China also supports democracy in that they want to help southeast asia and latin america and africa grow with infrastructure, actually ask people from there not from western lens what they think of China.
When USSR, INDIA & Yugoslavia balkanized, it created chaos that lasts today.
But they are better separate from their enemies
@@nohopeequalsnofear3242 what are you talking about, India never was balkanized
I agree. If there is a collapse or deterioration of the communist rule in China, coupled with lots of Chinese still not enlightened to the idea that every single being is his/her moral agent that can exercise his/her free will, still pined for a good leader and refused to accept the idea the political system, which emphasizes collective effort and conformity, is the problem itself, can create a perfect storm for disaster. The present system discourages free thinking and encourages group-think and toeing the state propaganda. As a result, they relied on the concept of reverse-engineering, parlaying the size of its economy to request/demand technology transfer from the trading partners to modernize itself and claimed the credit that all these advances were home-grown without relying on others to bolster the nationalistic fervor. Or worse, stealing the advanced technology through espionage or bribing Chinese working in corporations in the USA. Now the jig is up, lots of companies that bow to the pressure of selling the technology to China regret their past decisions.
Coupled with the declining population growth, enormous national debt, municipal debt, and the biggest housing bubble in history with a surplus of housing units that can house all of the people in India and the withdrawal of foreign investment, I cannot see a scenario with a good ending. Contrary to the Chinese propaganda, the impending economic collapse is self-inflicted (housing bubble and covid-19).
Dude, I studied China relentlessly and came to this guy's conclusion 6 years ago. People told me I was crazy, but I knew China had already reached its apogee.
hahhahahahahah
So...six years later and China is still rising
@@MonkeyBusiness870 I love comments like this one above.
China is looking to start a war with the West to fulfill it's plan to destroy the US and destroy democracy, to rescue China's failing economy, and to fulfill China's territorial ambitions in the Far East.
Read "Unrestricted Warfare", the PLA's own manual for how to destroy the US over the longterm
China, for much of it's history, specifically during the Warring States Period, was a master at scheming the downfall of it's neighboring countries, pretending to be friendly and benign, then striking when an opportune time arose
China's 2049 goal is the total control and domination of the world, with China as the sole superpower in the world. According to their hilariously false worldview, China is reclaiming it's rightful top spot after being the top dog for thousands of years. But if China was the top dog for thousands of years, how come 95% of scientific discoveries come from the West? They seem to forget about the Persian Empire, the Greeks, and Roman Empire, all of which was stronger and more advanced than China. China was only the top dog during the Tang, Song, and Ming Dynasties.
An excellent speech, as a former Chinese citizen, I am impressed by his deeper understanding of China
Are you joking? Misinformed and misleading speech.
@@lcf2366truth hurts
@@lcf2366 Your wishful thinking doesn't change facts.
@sundae7317 Your so called facts are simply bias and illusions
A huge nation, 3rd in the world in size and 2nd in population, with some 40,000 KM of high-speed train, the world's largest exporter of vehicles and a 2024 trade surplus of a trillion dollars is portrayed as weakening by this stxux pid person.
An unbelievable level of stuxpx idity of a man with a suit talking on a stage to an audience .
Shame.
Money is fleeing China for a reason.
Like US. Everyone is moving
@Hay8137g Look up the Visual Capitalist’s global net migration of high net worth individuals diagram. Rich people are fleeing China and Russia like crazy and flocking to: the UAE, USA, Australia, Switzerland, Greece, France, Canada, etc.
@Hay8137g Look up Visual Capitalist’s global migration of high net worth individuals. The rich are FLEEING China and flocking to the UAE, Australia, USA, Greece, France, etc.
@Hay8137g No. Look up Visual Capitalist’s global migration of high net worth individuals. The rich are FLEEING China and flocking to the UAE, Australia, USA, Greece, France, etc.
@Hay8137g No. People are FLEEING China like crazy.
God Bless America 🇺🇲 And her children ❤
Beckley is brilliant. I bought his two books while listening. Thank you for your excellent work.
顺便买章家敦的吧！😊
@@mingchenhuang532 and watch Fox News 24/7
Hope you will gain more reading his books
@@mingchenhuang532This What this guy is trying to do is just a magical thinking because China 🇨🇳 more stronger than never before 🎉
Chinese audience members frozen in fear.
Fear of what? Speech from the new Gordon Chang? Lol
actually they are happy that they are in the United States now.
What a joke. He can say any truth about the future.
This was in Korea, if I'm not mistaken
@@nicholasgossic Indeed it was! Incheon, South Korea.
At the same time, China is still PRODUCING. Almost every consumer product we're buying here in the US is made in China.
For years, avoid buying chinese stuff. Concerned about food products the most. They have done horrible things to such products
Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia etc manufacture too.
@@Ruth-os4mi We are manufacturing cheap stuffs, China is shifting its production capacity to high end technology.
Soon TRUMP tariffs will expedite the China problem
@@EdoHP
Thank you for your honesty.
The theory of China's economic collapse has been around for decades, with its roots tracing back to the late 1980s and early 1990s. This period saw significant political and economic changes globally, including the dramatic shifts in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Many in the Western hemisphere believed that China, as a socialist country, would follow a similar path.
One of the most notable proponents of this theory is Gordon G. Chang, who published "The Coming Collapse of China" in 2001. He predicted that China would collapse by 2011, a prediction that has since been proven wrong. Despite these repeated predictions, China's economy has continued to grow and evolve, defying the collapse theories.
Now, the debate continues, but the evidence so far suggests that the "China collapse" theory has not materialized as predicted.
it has been happening for decades and the speaker covered all points
those so called expert by the west are all joker.
so the current economic slow down and estimated 50%+ drop in population by the end of the century shows just how great the ccp is in command?
That is just com war
The argument being made in the lecture is that the Chinese economy is likely to decline, not necessarily collapse. To conflate this lecturer's argument with Changs is purely a straw man fallacy.
It's funny. If this guy didn't mention the country.
I could swear he's talking about USA as it's showhing all the sign of decline he said....
If China is so awesome, why does the CCP impose limits on the amount of capital that can leave the country? If it was so good, why do you need to keep the money prisoner there? Wouldn't the money want to be there if it was so great in China?
Agreed. Xi stops student mass bicycling at night. He is visibly a paranoid dictator trying to control even peaceful rebellion.
The Rich people don't want to pay their taxes O_o. BTW America also has a lot of policies that prevent people from going overseas because they will be double taxed...
Use brain, China could do that if evil USA stop printing money or stop USD hegemony
@@TempestTossedWatersUS shouldn't have to bad mouth China if it's collapsing right?
@TempestTossedWaters China is a social country and not allowed the people over richer and people is equal.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
He's far from the only one saying these things. Just looking at the numbers, a lot of it is obvious. Demographics is hugely important. It's easy to grow when you emerge from nothing, have endless cheap labor, and take on a lot of debt, all at once. That has driven Chinese growth. No one can argue that can go on indefinitely. But predictions are predictions. Some end up being more accurate than others, and no one gets everything right. I'd bet he's off in his timescale. Overall though, a very insightful presentation that makes so much sense.
Demographics do affect growth. So does automation, and China is the source of most industrial automation, not the US. Automation offsets demographics.
@@quicksilver0201 To some degree it does. Robots don't go home and cook and clean, and take care of parents though, or pay taxes, or do charity work, or serve in the military, or ?
I decided to look up which nation leads in automation - automation density. From, International Federation of Robotics: Korea does, by far. Almost four times more than China. China is ninth on the list. The U.S. is higher than China. But that was 2020 data. China is probably above the US now.
As the presenter of this talk says, the problem is that as China's growth slows and even goes into reverse, this will make the CCP leadership more desperate and aggressive, not less. The window of opportunity for it to conquer places such as Taiwan and assert itself is narrowing; with so much turmoil around the world it may choose the next few years to strike.
Peter Zeihan has been saying this exact message for a while now.
He has, but he's also more cataclysmic about China's prospects.
you can tell it true when you see so many mainland Chinese come to AMerica illegally. Where i live they are so many mainlander now. They left China for a reason.
@@altran1125 Chinese aren't even in the top 5 nationalities entering the US and in fact we are currently seeing a reverse brain drain from Chinese Americans scientists that are going back to China.
@scottmechura5084
The clown zeihan was never correct about China.
@@altran1125
25,000 Chinese entered illegally, while there are 94,000 illegal indians - so india must have collapsed already !!!
You are just frustrated that there are Mainlanders in your community.
This is one of the best presentations I have ever seen on economic influence on geopolitical events. Tying the threads together lets us see what could be the future. At the same time in the US, we have some of the same circumstances developing. These events are pointing to a 3rd WW. It will be catastrophic
Hmm, there are a lot of gaps though. Like don't they know that China is building up their military to counter the blockade not the reverse, and the size of Chinese military should be done by an independent country since American rich guys are threatened by China (btw not normal Americans). Most of Southeast Asian countries are still positive about China (Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, Indonesia, even the Phillippines). If Chinese were really more nationalist, why do they do tanping and have so few children. Look up cosplay Bangkok, Hanoi, Manilla, etc... and see that nearly half of the cosplayers are cosplaying characters from Chinese IPs like Genshin Impact, etc... The "Uyghur genocide" in the UN was voted against by a lot of nations including nations from Turkestan and 11 out of 12 Muslim nations voted against it, mostly Western nations voted for it. a
Naw, you must not know what the capabilities of the United Air Force are. Oh you have to have a Top Secret clearance!
You can count by your fingers the people that are listening.
How did you see anything? I only saw peoples faces 😂
As a Neighbor of China we in India are keenly watching the Development. Thanks for presenting your Perspective based on Facts. However it will be a mistake to underestimate China.
@@shantakaram1 China culture is peace and harmony to all. China just wants to live and enjoy the fruit of their labour unrestrained but if you think that is a sign of weakness then you are so wrong. When China decide to act against what you want to take away from them that’s where they will go all out to take you on and neutralises your threat soonest
Half the things he said were lies.
13:30 seems to show a US military base in Punjab.
They probably have plans for Khalistan.
What facts? This is pure anti-China propaganda. Most of the Chinese reactions are due to the unfair American actions.
The USA talks a lot about democracy, but acts worldwide a dictator.
How do you really think that Japan, South Korea, Netherlands stop selling chips and technology to China They were threathened. You don't obey there will be economic consequences. America plays this dirty trick all over the world.
Tell your neighbors to stop trying to scam everybody
Presenting with facts ?
WHAT FACTS?? His word?
Very well-studied and excellent and factual delivery. It will be very interesting in the future for us to observe
China is still going to want to collect on those loans where they took advantage of poor and corrupt countries. Ive seen first hand how they would gain contracts by bribes then bring in 20X the amount of ExPats that an American or European company would to construct and operate the facilities, because the imported actual construction workers nit just supervision. And the payrates that they paid the locals were 1/3 of the payrates they would get when working for American Companies and 1/2 of European companies.
Dont even get me started on how they treated the environment, basically shiite all over it.. While American and European companies tend to maintain the same standards as they do at home. This is same for Environmental as well as Safety programs
But China has already taken more from the poor countries Resources to make the repayment which was exactly what they were aiming for, so they have lost that right and the poor countries have finally woken up and realised what China was doing.
Outstanding analysis. Best I have ever seen about China.
All of the defensive comments with no substance 🤔😂😂😂
Wheel of life is like a ferris wheel. U r up in the clouds once, gradually move down to its lowest. Sometimes the wheel moves up again, but sometimes it just freeze. At other times the riders just leaves the wheels.
People are red faced for calling their beloved poo a dictator 🛑
Pooh is greedy and always on the hunt for more honey.
There are some people like this, but not all.
since 1972 when Nixon reached out to China and made alliance, it had been 54 years. China was dirt poor and GDP per capital ranked behind many nations. China was a 100% socialist structure. China GDP was $113 billion and per capital was $132. That is average Chinese per year for $132.
Fast forward to 2012, $8.53 trillion and $6300 per capital.
Xi in power in 2012, last 10 years, China GDP almost double and per capital almost double, estimate in 2024, $18.273 trillion and $12969 per capital.
The number speak itself.
In 2013, China started The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI or B&R), known in China as the One Belt One Road and sometimes referred to as the New Silk Road, is a global infrastructure development strategy adopted by the Chinese government in 2013 to invest in more than 150 countries and international organizations.
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has reached over $1 trillion in cumulative investment.
9 years later today, this one trillion have huge return. How could you not talk about this when you talk about China economy?
Wrong on everything .
China pre existed usa by 20000 years china was neither poor or struggling .
Usa lost to China in Korea and again in Vietnam . Nixon reached out bcz he knew China will rise and usa will fall .
Chinese don't earn in dollar . They earn in yuan.
Being socialist is what made china rise . No matter how much anyone tried . China kept rising.
Xi jin ping was approved through party support . Every member of Ccp is elected .
China kept supporting nations to develop . The fruits of belt and road helped nations to develop
Bcz china is a victim of colonialism
Law of diminishing marginal returns. When you are up, there’s no way but down.
Thank You! Brilliant ,Very informative...speech
I've read that China's gdp growth rate will slow down to 3% by 2030. Given that it will continue to slow down and the US has maintained a consistent 2% growth for decades, China will never surpass the US economically.
有梦最美！
go to china and compare hows people life there to america. and you will see and fell the diff.
Yes it’s now clear China will not surpass the US and will be overtaken by India in a few decades
The chinese dream is to surpass the U.S but it's a dream 😂@@mingchenhuang532
@@mingchenhuang532 yup you’re living one now lmao
SHOW THE SLIDES so we can know what he is talking about.
Very enlightening to grasp the changes taking place in the situation of China and implications to the future of China and geopolitics and other countries relying on China's growth.
do you think that India can replace China? and if India rise too much, will the USA not also do the same to punish India? will India's rise be the next USA target when their elections come? we have to think about these things
Twenty years, western experts has been predicting chinas decline and twenty years China has kept growing. 😂😂😂
Give us one example of when 20 years ago this was predicted. Everyone was praising the economic miracle of China...
@
2005- Gordan Chang(American Lawyer/Political Commentator)
2006- Wolfgang Lutz
2009- Many analysts and economists predicted chinas economy decline due to the financial crisis.
2010- Gordon Chang(Again)
2012 - Gordon Chang(Again)
2013 - Gordan Chang ( Again)
2015 - Yi Fuxian (Demographer)
Westoid are dumb ! It is a fact
For a pretty professional broadcast, you have fully missed the point by not showing the graphs. I mean the name of it is “knowledge forum”.
They don't have any graphs to substantiate their lies.
@@maggiechan33just curious, as someone who isn’t well read on this issue. What are the lies?
@@jimmyclemons3268
Goldman Sachs projected that by 2050 China economy will 41.9 T.
As per the World Fact Book, China's GDP(PPP) in 2023 was 31.227 T,
so their economy will continue to grow, not shrink as per this propagandist.
@@jimmyclemons3268
A credible source for China is American Kevin Walmsley's "Inside China Business".
@@jimmyclemons3268
See 'Inside China Business'.
The Asians in the audience seem ambivalent or gutted. Noice.
Except for the one guy around 20:40
The fact that you derive pleasure from this tells me you just hate China.
Regardless of the facts.
These people are Korean.
Really revealing how comments like that pretty much shows how this anti-China rhetoric attracts people who hate Asians in general.
I find this disgusting.
Perfectly Right Sir.. GOD BLESS.
ตลกดีนะ Homeless เต็มเมืองแต่มาบอกว่าประเทศอื่นจะล้มเหลว สงสัยมีประเทศเดียวในโลกนี้ที่เลิศเลอ 5555
他的国家不是佛教国 所以他们国家没有很好的福报 他不是佛教徒 他没有持戒 活在贪嗔痴傲慢的思想 因果报应会给他人生上一课很悲哀 善哉善哉善哉
I totally agree!
I'm a German Management consultant working internationally. 😂😢😮😅😊
Source trust me bro
Do you think US hegemony should continue or multipolar power structure is the safeway?
I do not understand howslowing down Chinese economy will increase other countries ecnomies. For example China is one of the Major Trding partner for Australia for Mine products such as copper coal etc. If they slow down definetly Australia's ecomnomy will slow down too. I do not think this man is correct. China is coming up with lots of electric cars and their industry for Solar panels are used in many countires. I think by enforcing tariffs on China US will have more Impacts.
China is also a leader in AI patents, by far. There is a possibility that they make the next big break throughs, and if they do then who knows what happens really.
Is he student of Gordon chang?
Hasn’t the same thing you describe about China happened in the US already? Except China has at least modernized themselves. The US has not. Look at our roads, infrastructure, and manufacturing base.
CCP,troll.Good luck,i hope they pay you enough.
China is not even a rich country, they are still a middle income country.
I understand u.but accept d reality now.truth hurts
Awesome presentation. Congrats to the Professor Beckley!
No one grows at growing rate forever on an exponential curve, boom and bust is the norm....
The speaker's work consisting of a book titled Unrivaled: Why America will remain the world's Sole Superpower and articles like "No one Should want to see a dictator get old" tells you all you need to know about the Foreign Policy Research Institute which he works for. He is about as neutral as the infamous beloved China pundit Gordon Chang who has been living off the "success" of his book written 25 years ago called The Coming Collapse of China. The power of BS is amazing to say the least.
So ?
Paid troll for China.
Yet you cannot say anything wrong about his argument. Cope.
A very insightful lecture, really an excellent piece indeed.
Here is a fact that prof. Beckley didn't clearify. We Taiwan is already an independent country for a really long time. China CCP has never ever ruled Taiwan or inherited it from any regime.
If u r independent country then how come no one major countries of world recognizes you as an independent country?.
An independent country recognized by absolutely nobody? An independent country that still worships a Chinese guy as your founding father?
who cares?
@@highhousefoodmart2011 What control does China have over Taiwan?
Ever wondered with you call yourself Republic of China (ROC) and not Republic of Taiwan (ROT)?
What goes up Must comes Down 😮
Whether or not you agree with this, the most important thing imo is that China did not rise by invading others or starting wars.
May be true, but not relevant to this topic
They did it partially through oppression instead of direct aggression.
@@marshman68pvit's absolutely relevant to what is a discussion of all the contributing factors to growth.
It doesn't make any sense whatsoever that a lecture that makes a case that everything about a country is negative, moreso one that has achieved such an economic miracle in such a short time in the history of mankind, and without any violence - relatively so to speak. What credibility do you have to speak on the matter. We want to hear from the Chinese to understand how they did it, and what they plan to do given their current challenges with aggressive ecpnomic competition with other powers. I've never seen such a poor job at propaganda in a long time. This guy never understood his assignment. This is not the way to demonize a country if you wanted anyone to believe you. Same mistake with the US democratic party. Say something too many times within your echo chambers and you start to believe it yourself. Despite the issues with China's economic
I love how none of his critics address the environmental destruction.
Very good summary? Another way to look at it. Chicom China is a huge Dutch tulip bubble. Every investment public and private was built on spec for the future. They were borrowing from the future. Consumption is also from the future. This is multiplied by layer after layer. The most obvious examples are the empty skyscrapers and malls with no occupants. Another example is the highway to nowhere. Other countries tacked on. This enormous balloon is bursting. Alas the higher you go, the harder you fall 🥹😱
WHAT DATA YOU USE
Mr. Beckley doesn't convince me: poor analytical insight with no data source, conclusions based on personal beliefs and hopes.
another clown by the west and they called it expert😂😂😂
Speaking good English. Ppl will believe.
Well to be fair the grass weren't shown so we don't know the data source.
Gordon chang 2.0 😂
China is not dying and its economy will not be slowing down.
Do you know which one will be collapse in the future? You bet! Which one has the most debt now? I am worrying the banks here in this country. Whichever spend too much money will be the one who fails its economy!
Unless it ends its totalitarian behavior... It will be a turn-off for major investment.
@@BandMtrippin
The US had absolutely NO problems investing and getting filthy rich in China.
Even now, the are many more American companies in China, than you can think of.
CCP chinas debt is now higher than the USA and many of their countries they have loan to will not be able to repay and they’ll turn on China and keep and use these resources in South America we may have a president who brings in the Monroe Doctrine and all those countries will put tariffs on China KARMA
@@maggiechan33 look at the Roman Empire in the past. You will learn pretty much about the USA!
@@TT-dp8qh
True, decline from within.
Yes, America is great. especially when they have people like you to analyse it in details for them. In Malaysia, we have kangkung professor. Much similarities.
I pity the people, suffering under their government 😢
are these 'experts' not saying this for 40 years?
They are empty tins. They have nothing else to say so they create fake propaganda and perceptions. 😂😂😂
What else can they do?
they have not been.
@@martinliew578 yes they have
@@martinliew578 yes they are saying this for decades
Nope
Despite issues with China's foreign trade and development assistance approach, it has still performed better in lifting other countries out of poverty and advancing economic mobility for developing countries than the exploitative approach of competitor powers. Trade between most with China has eclipsed that of the West and continues to do so. I continue to believe that the only pathway to outcompeting China on influence is to present and deliver on alternative and better bilateral trade and cooperation with developing countries than what China offers. Not in terms of propaganda, but real results. We live in different times. Strategic Information asymmetry has narrowed and will continue to do so. I believe lectures like these have more negative effects to their goal of making a case against China than positive and further heightens distrust in the global south. One key question - which countries in the global south have been supported to advance from poor economies to advanced economies or is the plan to ensure that no one ever does?
The west will never be able to "out-compete" China, vis a vis assisting the Global South.
With it's history of colonialism, imperialism and racism, they will never see the "less developed" as equal, whereas China does.
At the last G7 summit, they established "build back better, world", whereby the G7 will buy infrastructure in the Global South, and
charge people a fee, for using their own infrastructure, so the G7 companies can make a profit. The Chinese companies in Belt &
Road are state owned companies, not profit-obsessed one, which seek win-win collaborations, not the win-lose ones, of the G7.
TRUTH BEING TOLD HERE
Very easy to grow rapidly when all the greedy western capitalists devastated their economies and their citizens/countrymen to throw money at China. Its a zero-sum game. You think Mao or Deng would have done any of this on their own???
So well informed analysis
Everything I've heard is nothing I havent already heard from day to day news. There's not much substance, everything is at a high level, and there's a lack of insights on specific areas discussed. He's probably never been to China.
A very insightful study about China.
A good tying up of all the diverse threads in the world today. I think Michael is on the right track. Certainly it helps explain, to me as a citizen of a South East Asian country, China’s action in the South China Sea (really needs to be re-named!) of late! Makes a lo5 more sense now! Also, Trump’s election win was not factored in as it transpired after this talk, so the actions of the United States moving forward would certainly be most unsettling to China’s bargaining position!
Top notch analysis; thanks Michael Beckley.
终于有人说实话了，是时候了。我们需要更聪明的新中国领导人。我的家乡广州正在遭受苦难。
You deserve a better country to live in. Move out of China as soon as possible while it's not too late. With the support of the us, there're more countries are booming. Like India, Vietnam, Philipine etc. There are tons of opportunities waiting for you. Take care of yourself, bro. ❤❤❤
@@user-nm5dp8ky9e
润！赶紧的！别犹豫了！
@@user-nm5dp8ky9eChina is 5-6 times the size of India in terms of economy. Vietnam is 1/4 the per capita GDP of China. Where can you find a better place than China?
不，不，你润了就行，让习主席继续领导，让中国继续折腾，动态清0每隔10年来一回，毛主席说的😅！
first graph at circa 2:22 stops at 2020 - does this mean this doc is older or they only had access to data up to this year ? Thanks
His argument about peaking powers becoming aggressive only works if you don’t know history
Majority of people don't and history is written by those who win.
This is highly debatable. China is already dominant in so many areas- trade, finance, technology. If Trump thinks he can tariff away, he is badly mistaken. It will boomerang back on Americans with a blowout in price rises. The Trump tariffs in 2019 and ones imposed by Biden 2 years later hardly made a dent in imports to the US. In fact imports for some goods actually increased. And meanwhile, China is shifting its trade and currency management strategy to reduce its reliance on America. It has already brought its imports from the US down to 7%. Meanwhile America’s reliance on Chinese goods is about 30%. It will continue to rely on Chinese goods as many of its made in America goods depend on Chinese components, some goods as high as 50%. It’s very amusing to hear of Americans insisting they only buy American. So someone said boldly that American should bring the production of these components home. Maybe. But take note that American companies have to reinvent the technology to produce those components, technology in which China is already streets ahead of the rest of the world. It may not be cost feasible at all. China losing its dominance? I hardly think that. China also holds a large chunk of America’s USD38 trillion debt, and itself holds USD3.5 trillion of dollar reserves. It’s a major lender to America. In fact it can even compete with the Fed by issuing sovereign bills in dollars to finance the rebuilding of its own economy and offer competing rates against the Fed,forcing the Fed to offer a higher yield. That will be interesting when the US budget deficit balloons again in 2025 as Trump reduces corporate tax rates.
2 weeks into the Trump presidency, China has already fired its first salvo and shaved off 1 Trillion in the US stock market and put the future of US tech in jeopardy.
What about the impact of new tech growth in China that could recover its economic growth?
This has strong high school conference energy.
Are they Taiwanese?
DPP supporters
He is Taiwanese American
21:06 the look on her face was so spot on: "i can't believe i'm here to listen to this utter BS" 😂
@@Utube1024 🤣
I saw 'kim gun woo' on one name tag, they are south koreans. Just lap dogs
Brilliant thanks! It gave me facts and much to think about😊
I need affordable products and I cannot afford American goods. Why stop a country that makes things affordable to many common people.
We can buy goods from other Asian countries, Mexico, and South American countries.
Canada is even better 😢
@znrctrnn I'm from the Philippines and China is selling us affordable goods. Most of us is buying cheap Chinese products.
@@znrctrnn are any of them as good as China at manufacturing…I doubt …they r all wannabes
中國會把世界所有產業、企業打趴
Fascinating story. Thank you.
Outstanding presentation!
If we look at the group photo of APEC at Peru and where Biden stood. A picture is worth more than a thousand words.
Wow mini Gordan Chang is confident in his BS lol
bot, where is your original comment, just copy pasted orders from Beijing
@@fs5775 Oh boy we got an NPC here guys lol Oh by the way China just opened a Mega port in Peru.
Free Tibet
Free Inner Mongolia
Free Xinjiang/East Turkistan
Free Northern Vietnam and Paracel Islands
Free Manchuria
Free Hong Kong
Free Jimmy Lai
Free the good people of China
Free Falon Gong
Free the Uyghurs
Free Pooh Bear
And keep Taiwan and Indo Pacific region Free
Free from the evils of the CCP
Very good for the Philippines 🇵🇭
His analysis is very good but one major part his missed out is the internal situation. China's internal problems are far worse and immediate to the CCP than anything else. After Chinese New Year 2025 there will be massive layoffs which may spark something off.
Why after the New Years? Is that when most layoffs happen?
Yes, new year is a big milestone. Government normally unwilling cause major civil unrest before Chinese new year. But not sure afterwards
@@jamesdeininger3759 your described usa
@@Anonymous21924you described usa
You described usa😂😂
The problem with most of the Western intellects is that they tend to build a great looking chain of reasoning - only with a few links missing or skewed. This guy too had a few idiotic statements like claiming Ukrainian annexations to be a consequence of Russia becoming a peaking power. The fact being it is a consequence of deliberate aggressive NATO expansion and Russia containment strategy. Similarly he must be too ignorant to claim China became a fascist because of peaking its power in 2010s. It was a fascist rogue regime since the day Mao undemocratically took over the country since1940s, by brutally massacring millions of innocents and continue to do so, all these years. Give us a break man.
There will surely be casualties on both sides of a war. But massacring millions of innocents? Where does this figure come from? Which country would massacre millions of its own people? It was only during the War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression that tens of millions of Chinese civilians died. Even the real fascist, Hitler, didn't massacre his own people.
NATO expansion is a propagandist term coined by Kremlin, what actually happened was most of all Russia's neighbors had reasonable fear of being attacked by Russia, as it had repeatedly happened before, therefore they all applied to join NATO. Some of other neighbors that did not, were in fact attacked by Russia, that includes Ukraine and Georgia.
Learn history and do not spread Putin's propaganda.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia
How can NATO expansion be called aggression: every country that has joined NATO has done so by choice. They were not coerced or pressured, they see the logical economic and security benefits of siding with a more stable partner - the EU and US - as opposed to a corrupt dictatorship in Russia trying to hold onto the past. If these countries did not feel threatened by Russia, they would feel no need to join NATO.
If countries didn't feel threatened by Russia, they would not join NATO
Good analysis
A similar analysis of US and other economies and their comparison would give a better picture of how the major economies are performing.
BRICKS is not declining. China is not declining.
If you aren't worried about China's rise, you wouldn't pay attention to it one bit.
😂😂😂
So right on the money. Why others can’t see these facts and misrepresent China as a continually rising power is a mystery.
The brics are making America great again 😂
😂. Well said
how is de-dollarisation going to make america great.😅
@pragasanarchary2980 Time will tell, it always does...
@pragasanarchary2980 Coma capim, e observe o dólar 💵💲 a subir 🪜☺️
@ I like that one. Though,,,, we appear to have a problem with the truth being allowed to circulate. The delay is holding humanity back. But,,?im with ya
This speaker, Michael Beckley is from American Enterprise Institute , one look at who funds them -Lewis H. Brown: Founder and former CEO of Bristol-Myers. Charles Koch: Chairman and CEO of Koch Industries. David H. Koch: Executive Vice President of Koch Industries. Robert K. Steel: Former CEO of Wachovia Corporation and Under Secretary of the Treasury for Domestic Finance. John Thornton: Former President and CEO of Goldman Sachs. What a laughing stock why would they not want to promote propoganda benefitial to americans? lmao america is getting seriously ill
Bet you're wrong. Don't trust wishful thinking.
He doesn't know what he is talking about
He knows,
he's the one who made it up.
Sounds like Patrick Chang and keep on brainwash the Koreans.
Fact is fact. How can you brainwash with facts?
LOL, Let us check this video 5years later😝
😏A breaking news I been hearing since 2007⁉️ Novices and Funny wishful thinkers best describes western economists academicians‼️ Lots of craps and jingoism loaded hopes could make a better topic.
the discussion should be put in context by comparing chinese economic performance and demographics with that of india, japan, taiwan, s. korea and vietnam. in particular, slowing population growth, aging workforces, and slowing economic growth are issues in most of east asia. china is unique mostly in its type of governance, which can change depending on the thinking of the central committee of the CCP.
Questions：
1. Has this gentleman ever been to china？or at least been to China recently?
2. Does he know the fact that China generated and consumed 9.3 trillion kw power and US only generated and consumed 4.2 trillion kw power in 2023？
3. Does he know China has the most industrial robots in the world （robot density ranked 3 ）？
4.Though he is a fluent English speaker ，does he know how to counter his fingers. I mean does he have the basic training in counting numbers？
I Wonder if he has been in China and visit any city.
If he did do you think he would be saying this? 😂 Steve Hsu just realeased a video a few days ago, he's impressed as hell, the upper echelons of Chinese intelligentsia have an undisturbed quiet confidence that the rise is inexorable.
Apreciate the viewpoints. Given China’s economic rise is anomalous do these metrics apply? As they make a shift from lower value items to higher value items like Semiconductor,EV,Green Energy that requires massively increased Capex, headcount/initial lower Productivity and a non linear learning / development curve wouldn’t we expect anomalies in these metrics? Just a question.
Not Again China Collapse 😂😂😂China’s 4-5% GDP growth still good,,, it’s now biggest green energy installer, car makers, robotics,,,,
You got to give China points for not invading other nations and sucking their oil or wealth, when they r seeing a decline in their fortunes. Ahemmm…..the Americans and Europeans would pretend not to hear that 😊
China would have already invaded nations were it not for the United States which would stop them.
Very good speech.
So that US can always be No.1. No rivalry allowed. Who is the one fighting wars through history? Who is the one wanting to dominate the world?
The United States has never been an empire-builder like the European nations. No one would say, 'The Sun never sets on the American Empire'. The biggest American war is still the American Civil War. That was when American cities were flattened, and 600.000 Americans lost their lives. The United States was the big winner from both WWI and WWII. It never wanted in to either of those conflicts. Since WWII, it has been a global peacekeeper.. That's a role that cost many American boys their lives in wars they didn't understand or care much about. The average American doesn't understand the benefits of America's position. There are benefits. We feel like our British cousins before us. We'd build a wall and quit the job. American leaders and the educated class fear that ending the American Century will result in subjugation.
@@frederickwelsh Peacekeeping by US = Decimating nations who american believe is evil. Peacekeeping by US = waving war in Middle East and developing US in expense of other countries.
@@frederickwelsh Old fashion colonial is in-efficient, US dominates the world through US dollar, financial colonial is much efficient and better ways to do it. US is only war free for 17 Years since founded. Ask yourself at heart, why US need 750 military bases across the world? To ensure US empire rule the world.
With 800 military bases around the globe, that makes it an imperial hegemon. The biggest single conflict was the genocide of the Native Americans totalling at least 20m. They werent even worthy of being counted, unlike the greatest act of animal cruelty, the mass slaughter of the American Bison, totalling over 100m. And the US fully partook in the Transatlantic slave trade and the Opium trade in China, and we're leading participants in the Eight Nation Alliance. Fully colonised the Philippines and instigated the wars in Korea, Vietnam and Indonesia resulting in over 20m deaths. Played both sides in the two World Wars and had a hand in every conflict in Latin America, all part of its Monroe Doctrine. And since 9/11, involved in several wars of aggression based on nothing but lies. Today, the American Empires proxy war in Ukraine, full support of its chief allies genocide in Gaza, and spoiling for conflict along with its vassals Taiwan and the Philippines, makes it the most destructive empire in history, not that fairytale yarn you just spun.
@@NFurst-n3w 90% of the Native Americans died from diseases, nice try though