Somehow my first comment is gone so: The unknown Japan Cygames game is here released under the name "Little Noah: Scion of Paradise" (released 2022). Also they released "Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash" this year. Backward compatibility confirmed! 🥳
My comments on youtube videos in other channels are also getting deleted after initially appearing as submitted. I lost some great wording and timing on the way
Wishful thinking is hoping that it’ll be announced by the end of the year, especially since they’ve disclosed “some” information about it now. But realistically it probably won’t be announced until after the holidays.
Yep. Nintendo will maximize the mileage of the Switch. Theyre at 146 million plus units now last quarter. I just find it funny that trickles of info can translate into weeks of clickbait videos.
February is suspiciously free from new game launches, almost as though someone wanted to prevent a big announcement from over-shadowing the launch of a new game. February - Nintendo announces new airline
Off topic, but finally something in my feed that isn't about the you know what. Genuinely though this video helped me relax a bit, many thanks for that.
This presentation was huge, I don't remember the last time they did such a detailed briefing. This truly feels they are summarizing Switch's era while also looking at the future. I now honestly think they will announce the new system before next financial results and that will be the new focus of these presentations. The fact we got the backwards compatibility info now tells me they said everything they could about the system without really announcing it. I don't see how they would present Q3 results in February still saying "we will announce the successor to Nintendo Switch this fiscal year"... a month away from this deadline. My speculative timeline: announcement at the end of January, financial results in early Februaru where they repeat the public information and confirm 1) a Switch focused Direct (partner?) in the following week; 2) a Switch 2 focused presentation sometime between February and March. Alternative scenario: next financial meeting they will simply reveal the date of the announcement.
To me, as a Star Fox, Fox McCloud being there doesn't mean too much. He usually shows up these kinda of character collages for Nintendo. Still, this is at least another round of nice acknowledgment of the series from The big N, and hopefully, this is not just another case of Fox being a camo man.
A ds type stylus would scratch the screen over time as compared to a smartphone stylus, so if there's only one screen on the hardware, I find this unlikely. I would still love to see a Mario Maker 3 tho
Another thing with Fire Emblem is that it saw a pretty big sales drop-off going from Three Houses to Engage, so that could be something they don't want to highlight too much right now.
@@nintendoforecast Happy to see another Echoes enjoyer! It's personally my favorite Fire Emblem game. I love how weird and unique the mechanics are, and would love to see another game expand upon the systems with stronger map design.
I've been waiting for this video, I've seen so many other channels run with "Sales are Down! Nintendo in Trouble!" Style content, it's good to have the information broken down with a bit of nuance
There was just another update. Furakaws gave an interview in which he stated that he doesn’t believe that the announcement of the Switch Succesor would impact Holiday Sales at all
Thanks for highlighting this - I may have a look as and when time permits. Mind you, what else could he say? "Yes, it would kill our Switch sales stone cold if people knew the new system was about to drop" probably wouldn't work. @EtanMarlin My Nintendo News has the link.
im inclined to believe he's being somewhat truthful since he also stated earlier in the year Nintendo would rather sacrifice holiday sales if it meant setting up the successor more. Likely combined with the backwards compatibility announcement and holiday bundles, if people want to buy switch still they will. Everyone whose waiting for the next console likely already has one or is very in the know
Interesting the From Software are listed in that bunch of strong relationships... They only released one game on Switch to my knowledge. More From Software games coming to Switch 2?
I remember hearing some rumors saying that From Soft developers don't like Nintendo, don't know if it just some kind of baseless rumor, but there some actual sayings from Japanese developers, like one of the Yakuza series' producers saying some years ago that the Switch wasn't an appropriate platform for the series, despite the fact that Kiwami's sales on the Switch were better than expected, or some comments made by CyberConnect 2's developers saying that the Japanese gaming industry landscape was practically everyone against Nintendo, since Nintendo games have sold much better than any other developer ever since the Switch launched almost 8 years ago
@@pablocasas5906 What is that even supposed to mean? They're a business, they want money, so they'll release their content if it makes sense. Miyazaki, I think is his name, is also a quite vocal Zelda fan. And that everyone against Nintendo thing likely means that they're steep competition, not hate.
I'm so grateful to Nintendo for letting Monolithsoft develop their passion projects alongside supporting other dev teams. They may never read this, but I would have jumped to another platform a long time ago if it weren't for Xenoblade.
As always, above all else, I majorly appreciate your more level headed look to all of this. I’ve seen a few people (Switch 2 NOW fans, mostly) treating the flagging sales with so much doom and gloom, it would make Calamity Ganon blush. And not to say they’re wrong to be concerned, but the overall is that Nintendo are in a very stable place, even if not the most profitable. And we shouldn’t expect the craziest sales all the time, they’re GONNA have slower years. Like, this year started slow until Paper Mario (for me, at least) but the June Direct really picked things up (again, at least for me). It was more than a little overwhelming how many games I was looking forward to after June when the start of the year was just Paper Mario. So even if other people may be looking at the lower sales and thinking the worst… I’m just enjoying the games, genuinely. Looking forward to Brothership (even if I’m waiting until the holidays).
re: consumer touchpoints, they've been offering cosmetics for your switch account in exchange for opening up a game. I can see this expanding to deeper challenges to drive activity on older titles.
While this may be outside the "comfort zone" of subjects for this channel, with the recent US presidential election results, do you think that tariffs will become an issue for Nintendo with regards to Nintendo Switch 2 or with selling physical games? Personally, I am significantly more reluctant to believe in a $400 USD price tag for the Switch 2 with recent events. Your insight and informed outlook on various economic and geopolitical trends have been quite valuable in providing informed and novel analysis regarding Nintendo, and I think your input on this would be illuminating.
Yeah, I have a video in progress (the audio's just gone onto my Patreon actually) looking into this. I want to see if there is anything in the Q&A about this before finalising it though.
I ought to give it to Nintendo the switch era has been their most successful yet I think they could see even bigger success with their next console, switch 2, this presentation highlights things that will be very important in the near future for example 1. Nintendo is expanding their internal studios and will no doubt continue to collaborate with other studios to make even more games to combat how long making games will be next gen. Of course I really hope that with the increase in development teams it’ll mean we can see certain franchises like Star fox make a return 2. Nintendo has broken into more regions like Brazil, china, and Saudi Arabia, this might potentially mean that switch 2 will launch on more countries that it did before which of course will mean higher sales for them 3. Major third party support. If rumors are true and the next system is on par with ps4 pro or Xbox series S it’ll then be safe to assume switch 2 will be a major historic moment for Nintendo as it’ll be the first time since the SNES that they had FULL 3rd party support This is huge cuz not only does this mean more games for us to play but it’ll no doubt be profitable to have big hits like Elden ring, yearly releases like COD, and major new entries in franchises like resident evil It’ll also make switch 2 more attractive to those who aren’t interested in Nintendo’s own offering while also offering a portable factor the competition can’t provide at potentially a cheaper price. Having Nintendo library of games AND third parties and enjoying them in a portable factor will no doubt lead to major success 4. Expanding their IPs. We’ve already seen the major success of the Mario movie and we know got it can impact games sales with Nintendo announcing like 6 Mario games after the movie’s release. This only continues with apps like Pikmin bloom, their museum, theme parks with expansions, and merchandise like animal crossing or Zelda Lego sets I hope we’ll soon see them continuing to expand into movies and TV shows and cover larger demographics like say a pre-schoolers Kirby cartoon, continuing Mario star fox movies and potentially shows, a slice of life animal crossing that can be found on Netflix, or live action Zelda or Metroid movies for teens and adults that can all work to attract more interest to them 5. Switch’s healthy player base. I ought to give it to Nintendo again for making such a healthy system like the switch, its success was very natural unlike that of the Wii in which it felt like a flash in the pan. This is also strengthened when they showed that the yearly amount of active users continues to rise till this year which means most people who own a switch STILL continue to use it and are invested in Nintendo’s offering This is all great as it means switch 2 will be building off of great momentum unlike Wii U or the original switch. Especially after the records breaking numbers their games sold on switch it’s fair to say Nintendo is more relevant than ever and that puts the switch 2 in a great position 6. Lastly, there’s also the lack of competition. The 9th gen hasn’t proven itself yet with the biggest criticism is its lack of exclusive games even sales of consoles like Xbox series s/x and ps5 aren’t up to snuff as their previous consoles during the same period and the increase in power hasn’t been very notable. Somehow the switch on its 7th year manages to release more exclusive and generate more money than Sony’s own offering And I think this issue will be made more notable with the switch 2 which likely seems to be a very beefy console that will no doubt have Nintendo’s usually great library of exclusives and third party games all while still having a monopoly on handhelds and being sold for a cheaper price with other avenues of pulling people into their games like their movies Overall the future looks very bright and I’m just interested to see what new games we’ll get, what new features we can see like their Nintendo music app, and just how far will their IPs expand. I’m really looking forward to it
PlayStation are looking to release their own handheld, and they're are a lot of PC based handhelds along with the steam deck, which will start competing with Nintendo
@@bradbradson4543 I didn’t want to make the comment super long but I doubt these PC handhelds will put up a competition. Steam deck been out since 2022 and has sold less than the Wii U a console the switch outsold in its first year. Especially when switch 2 releases the steam deck will lose any edge it once had with it’s only edge being able to play your steam library but that’s minor compared to switch 2 which will offer exclusives and physical games along with a dock and potentially better battery life for the same price of a steam Same issue would happen for a Sony handheld, I’ve never heard any plans for em to make one tho only the current PS portal. Either way it’ll run into the same issue as steam deck and ps5 it’ll lack exclusives and part of me doubt it’ll be a hybrid so if you want to play on tv you might still need to spend 500$ on a ps5
@bradbradson4543 All of these pc handhelds are very expensive and their batteries drain quickly, on top of not being well optimized like the steam deck is. The steam deck is the best bank for your buck but even then, the switch 2 will make the steam deck or even the steam deck 2 that will eventually come out pointless, as its likely to truly be full 3rd party support. Why would i want a steam deck or handheld pc when all the steam games, and multiplatform games, AND nintendo Exclusives are available on the switch 2. It could truly be the everything console if done right. The switch 2 will also likely be cheaper compared to the competition. There is no way nintendo does not dominate the hanheld market. If they choose to be lighter on 3rd party support, they are backstabbing themselves. Kemmoado hit the nail on the head. Nintendos expanding and they would be the blindest bigots to not take advantage of where they are at. The only reason to not get the switch 2 would be for the exclusives that wont be able to run on it, which will be a small amount compared to its future library. What i am worried about is the amount of storage that will come with it. Less space means the more hardcore gamers are gonna have to spend money on sd cards to play the 3rd party games as they tend to take up much more storage. Other than that, if they dont improve the menu ui and analog sticks I will be speechless.
It's interesting to think about Three Houses being the big break for Fire Emblem but the franchise overall performing about the same as it has on the 3DS. Like the drop-off from Three Houses to Engage is steeper than from Xenoblade 2 to 3.
You may sound like Keir Starmer, but you talk a lot more sense than him! Thank you for making something so corporate and bengin so interesting, as ever. Keep up the good work matey
Well at least we can be rest assured that the Switch Successor will be backwards compatible. Really interesting stats on Metroid, Xenoblade, Pikmin, and Kirby. Thanks for the deep dive.
Interesting to hear you speak again on the idea of a fourth ultra-budget Switch model akin to the New 2DS XL. Definitely agree that they’d want to keep dockability as a factor - likewise I wonder if they would drop the Joy-Cons so they can keep the price and size down, losing tabletop mode for it as a result but keeping TV and handheld? Though I guess in that case docked mode would require an extra controller to be bundled in anyway… all very confusing to think about😭😭
I think a Switch smaller than a Lite could be a huge hit in many markets, especially if Nintendo markets it as a budget option. And funnily enough, yesterday I saw a regular Switch and a Lite at a gaming shop and near them there was one of those portable consoles that try to imitate the Switch, and it looked exactly like a Lite version, but it was much smaller, similar to a PS Vita. Nintendo should release something like that
Nobody’s stopping Nintendo from strengthening engagement with NSO’s core functionality - namely, online gaming. It’s their own choice to frequently completely ignore online functionality in the most obvious places (looking at you Pikmin 4 dandori battle) in favor of … split screen?!
Unsure if you’ll see this but there is one more thing I want to add to the discussion of a new Switch 1 model release - it might be potentially more beneficial for them to release a third iteration (V3) of the standard Switch model with further price optimisations. Not only would it require much less resources but also comes with the benefit of letting them stick to their tried and true three-prong model, assuming they cut ties with the OLED of course. That said I do think it’s quite likely Nintendo might stay reluctant to cut the price of the original Switch even when its successor comes around, so I’m unsure. Plus you could definitely question the market appeal of what would regardless be seen as an eight-year old system in comparison to a brand new one. Maybe they could have a best-of-both-worlds approach and make a digital-only Switch 1 model, identical to the old one in almost every way but with those price cuts from before and an ever-so-slight new coat of branding? I really am just spitballing here lmao but I think it’s worth the thought.
4:45 I think they'll try to keep the Switch Lite alive and coexisting with the Switch 2 as much as possible. I think there's a digital-only Switch Lite on the horizon.
Its only considered a flop with other game devs like EA, UBIsoft, et al, if it sells less than 5 million copies with their Triple Arse game budgets. Nintendo doesnt really have to spend much on the remaster, not much marketing and the assets are mostly reused. Plus Metroid have always historically sold less than gangbusters compared to other Nintendo IPs.
If Nintendo estimates to nearest 5 hour increments (once a game passes 20 hours or so) that's really not so bad. Their tracking last year was top marks even with this obfuscation. Steam was short about 10-15% on myself and several of my gaming friends, while Sony's was atrocious, off 20-30% for most people and about 60% for me, hundreds of hours low. (After being about 25% low for me in 2022.) An imprecise, rounded estimate of accurate numbers is still far more useful (and respected) than precise numbers that are completely inaccurate.
If you end up doing this, you should probably wait a while since people are tired of hearing about it but I'm really curious how Trump's terrifs on importing will affect Nintendo's relations with America. Idk just could be interesting. Regardless of whether you make that video, thanks for being super cool!
I doubt we'll hear anything about switch 2 until the new US president can give any confirmation of his proposed revenue regime of replacing income tax with sweeping tariffs. Or at the very least it'll be more expensive in the USA, which could throw a wrench into things
Yeah. I was thinking of making a video on this but decided before the election would be a bad time. I still may not as I don't know it will affect their choices - depends when the plan is explained.
With Splatoon 3 continuing to receive unique new splatfests for at least its third year, it's likely going to continue to receive some level of support even when the switch successor has long been announced or even already released. People have theorized about a potential third wave of DLC for a long time now, I wonder if that could be used to put Splatoon 3 back into the spotlight at the beginning of the new console's lifespan without having to rush out an entire game. Either way, I believe and hope that Splatoon 4 will not be released within the first two or so years of the Switch 2's existence. It needs time.
I doubt splatoon will get more. they were *very* firm that the live service timeframe would be 2 years and no longer, I suspect that they're on contract working on their next game now (probably next splatoon or animal crossing). I'm sure they'll keep it running until well past 4 comes out eventually though.
@MudakTheMultiplier They also specified that the Grand Fest marked the end of *regular* updates, technically leaving the door open for surprise additions. And the new splatfests are still adding event-exclusive cosmetics. There probably won't be any DLC, but I think it could still be in the cards.
I don't think there's any way Nintendo hits their sales targets. Even after lowering projections, it's still going to fall short. There's no way they will sell 7 - 8 million more Switch units by the end of February.
32:12 - Highlighting franchise growth between Wii U/3DS & Switch is a bit silly with these games... The Switch had far more entries, and more time on the market Not even factoring in the larger install size, it doesn't really seem like an honest analysis when Switch got every Xenoblade game & like a dozen Kirby games 😅
It would be interesting to see a switch lite that can be docked, or they can save on RnD and just lower the price of the original switch when switch 2 comes out
I stopped renewing my membership because 1 money is tight, 2 I was waiting for switch 2 news (been a while so that was dumb tbh lol), and 3 I just stopped playing multiplayer games, there's not many people I play online with, and I fell out of splatoon mostly just cause I've played a lot of it. I don't have a good reason to renew it right now other than maybe the retro games but I can live with the ones I've got physically right now that don't require any extra money to enjoy.
I was thinking about how nintendo could sell zelda BotW on the next gen My thought is that it may be possible to besides clean up resolution and frame rate they could do the same with TotK and bundle them....not only that but making some kind of interconnection between the two games where (perhaps) the armor upgrades and korok seeds obtained in the first game transfer to the second or even be able to have the mastercycle usable in TotK. It may be game breaking to have all that in TotK but I don't know it that necessarily matters for 2 older titles by the time the next gen console releaaes
Could someone explain, how did we know the switch successor will be backwards compatible before the announcement? I thought this is the first official confirmation of this, since I don't follow the news very closely, and some clarification would be helpful. Great video so far, I really appreciate the detailed analysis here!
This is the first actual confirmation of the successor hacking backwards compatibility. Before now people were just assuming that it would anyway because “why wouldn’t it,” but there was no proper evidence of it before now.
The evidence was Nintendo seemingly continuing to actively be releasing new Switch games well into 2025, despite the new console having been revealed (and maybe even released) by the time these games release.
The pokemon leaks pointed to the switch successor using the same rom format as original switch. Which would automatically point to backwards comparability
The main reason I can remember is that there was a comment a year ago from Browser; the president of NoA; where he talked about backwards compatibility in a very round-about way where he said that the Nintendo Account was part of Nintendo's plan to make the transition from Switch to a successor easier. If I remember correctly; he came out to make the comment ad-mist a bunch of rumors that the Switch 2 wouldn't be backwards compatible, so most people assumed he was indirectly refuting the rumors. Quote: "Well, first I can’t comment - or I won’t comment, I should say - on the rumours that are out there, but one thing we’ve done with the Switch to help with that communication and transition is the formation of the Nintendo Account (...) Our goal is to minimize the dip you typically see in the last year of one cycle and the beginning of another. I can’t speak to the possible features of a new platform, but the Nintendo Account is a strong basis for having that communication as we make the transition."
I don't get why you use percentages' referring to probability when you have nothing to base them in. Saying something has a 10% chance doesn't really mean anything. It's easier and frrankly less disingenuous to say high or low chance than ascribe an arbitrary number that has no data backing it up.
It's my confidence level and judgment based on the factors given but I aim for my 10% forecasts to come off 10% of the time, my 30% forecasts 30% of the time and so on so these become accurate in the aggregate. Or that's the idea - you can see my last review video earlier in the year.
Somehow my first comment is gone so:
The unknown Japan Cygames game is here released under the name "Little Noah: Scion of Paradise" (released 2022).
Also they released "Umamusume: Pretty Derby - Party Dash" this year.
Backward compatibility confirmed! 🥳
Thanks! Pinned your comment.
My comments on youtube videos in other channels are also getting deleted after initially appearing as submitted. I lost some great wording and timing on the way
Imagine Nintendo saying "one more thing" at their next direct only to reveal a Star Fox Stickerbook.
Actually...a Nintendo themed coloring book is not a bad idea.
@@022107 that'll be 60 dollars per book sir
@@whentheyDonly available to NSO subscribers
Don't be absurd! It's going to be starfox joycon...skins.
@@022107I've still got an old how to draw book from back in 2000-ish. Bowser was named Kerog for some reason. Good times.
Nintendo Pres.: The next console will be backwards compatible.
Regular RUclipsrs: Switch 2 reveal next week! Woooo.. Let's go...
Wishful thinking is hoping that it’ll be announced by the end of the year, especially since they’ve disclosed “some” information about it now. But realistically it probably won’t be announced until after the holidays.
Yep. Nintendo will maximize the mileage of the Switch. Theyre at 146 million plus units now last quarter.
I just find it funny that trickles of info can translate into weeks of clickbait videos.
February is suspiciously free from new game launches, almost as though someone wanted to prevent a big announcement from over-shadowing the launch of a new game.
February - Nintendo announces new airline
@@DontKnowDontCare6.9Months, many months
@@DontKnowDontCare6.9if we pass 150M in Q3, we’re on track for the top if sales don’t nosedive in 2025 with Switch 2.
Off topic, but finally something in my feed that isn't about the you know what. Genuinely though this video helped me relax a bit, many thanks for that.
This presentation was huge, I don't remember the last time they did such a detailed briefing. This truly feels they are summarizing Switch's era while also looking at the future.
I now honestly think they will announce the new system before next financial results and that will be the new focus of these presentations. The fact we got the backwards compatibility info now tells me they said everything they could about the system without really announcing it. I don't see how they would present Q3 results in February still saying "we will announce the successor to Nintendo Switch this fiscal year"... a month away from this deadline.
My speculative timeline: announcement at the end of January, financial results in early Februaru where they repeat the public information and confirm 1) a Switch focused Direct (partner?) in the following week; 2) a Switch 2 focused presentation sometime between February and March.
Alternative scenario: next financial meeting they will simply reveal the date of the announcement.
Never paid any attention to investor briefings before this channel now I’m here looking forward to the next one already! 😂
To me, as a Star Fox, Fox McCloud being there doesn't mean too much. He usually shows up these kinda of character collages for Nintendo. Still, this is at least another round of nice acknowledgment of the series from The big N, and hopefully, this is not just another case of Fox being a camo man.
Did you call yourself a “Star Fox”? I love it, lol!
@@LessThanPi Nah I didn't mean to do that, I meant Star Fox Fan. lols that's a bit embarrassing.
@ I thought you were the newest member of the team! No worries Ross McCloud.
he is the stars in the fox
No he doesn't. He never shows up in these slides. He hasn't since 2016
The moment touch-screen w/ stylus is back, I'll consider future Mario Maker games on the top priority list again.
A ds type stylus would scratch the screen over time as compared to a smartphone stylus, so if there's only one screen on the hardware, I find this unlikely.
I would still love to see a Mario Maker 3 tho
Another thing with Fire Emblem is that it saw a pretty big sales drop-off going from Three Houses to Engage, so that could be something they don't want to highlight too much right now.
Good point. (Shame as I'm in the minority that preferred Echoes).
@@nintendoforecast Happy to see another Echoes enjoyer! It's personally my favorite Fire Emblem game. I love how weird and unique the mechanics are, and would love to see another game expand upon the systems with stronger map design.
Audio sounds way better! Thanks for a great video diving deep on this topic.
I always love your breakdowns. I already find these things interesting and your coverage manages to magnify that interest.
Thank you!
I've been waiting for this video, I've seen so many other channels run with "Sales are Down! Nintendo in Trouble!" Style content, it's good to have the information broken down with a bit of nuance
Maybe they just wanted to make sure people still buy switch games on christmas since they know they can play them later next year on their new system
🧠
I invest in the company and your videos are fan-tastic. Thank you
There was just another update. Furakaws gave an interview in which he stated that he doesn’t believe that the announcement of the Switch Succesor would impact Holiday Sales at all
where is this? id love to take a look myself
Thanks for highlighting this - I may have a look as and when time permits. Mind you, what else could he say? "Yes, it would kill our Switch sales stone cold if people knew the new system was about to drop" probably wouldn't work. @EtanMarlin My Nintendo News has the link.
I’m gonna leave a comment here so I’m notified when someone tells everyone else where this is
@@minecrafter3448 Mr Nintendo Forcast said its in the My Nintendo News, and that there is a link to it there
im inclined to believe he's being somewhat truthful since he also stated earlier in the year Nintendo would rather sacrifice holiday sales if it meant setting up the successor more. Likely combined with the backwards compatibility announcement and holiday bundles, if people want to buy switch still they will. Everyone whose waiting for the next console likely already has one or is very in the know
Fantastic breakdown of what was really said so much more than backwards compatibility.
Interesting the From Software are listed in that bunch of strong relationships... They only released one game on Switch to my knowledge. More From Software games coming to Switch 2?
It was heavily rumored that Elden Ring : Definitive Edition was coming to Switch 2.
I remember hearing some rumors saying that From Soft developers don't like Nintendo, don't know if it just some kind of baseless rumor, but there some actual sayings from Japanese developers, like one of the Yakuza series' producers saying some years ago that the Switch wasn't an appropriate platform for the series, despite the fact that Kiwami's sales on the Switch were better than expected, or some comments made by CyberConnect 2's developers saying that the Japanese gaming industry landscape was practically everyone against Nintendo, since Nintendo games have sold much better than any other developer ever since the Switch launched almost 8 years ago
@@pablocasas5906
No such claim exists.
It's all baseless rumors.
@@pablocasas5906 What is that even supposed to mean? They're a business, they want money, so they'll release their content if it makes sense. Miyazaki, I think is his name, is also a quite vocal Zelda fan.
And that everyone against Nintendo thing likely means that they're steep competition, not hate.
Legendary Star Fox Content
Finally The Return
Big Things Ahead
Great in-depth coverage and analysis, as always. Appreciated and thank you!
I'm so grateful to Nintendo for letting Monolithsoft develop their passion projects alongside supporting other dev teams. They may never read this, but I would have jumped to another platform a long time ago if it weren't for Xenoblade.
As always, above all else, I majorly appreciate your more level headed look to all of this. I’ve seen a few people (Switch 2 NOW fans, mostly) treating the flagging sales with so much doom and gloom, it would make Calamity Ganon blush. And not to say they’re wrong to be concerned, but the overall is that Nintendo are in a very stable place, even if not the most profitable. And we shouldn’t expect the craziest sales all the time, they’re GONNA have slower years.
Like, this year started slow until Paper Mario (for me, at least) but the June Direct really picked things up (again, at least for me). It was more than a little overwhelming how many games I was looking forward to after June when the start of the year was just Paper Mario. So even if other people may be looking at the lower sales and thinking the worst… I’m just enjoying the games, genuinely. Looking forward to Brothership (even if I’m waiting until the holidays).
Nin Forcast has that Sakurai-esq work ethic.
Love your breakdowns! As a Nintendo investor your insight helps a lot in decision making 😊
Star Fox game hype? Getting my clown makeup ready...
re: consumer touchpoints, they've been offering cosmetics for your switch account in exchange for opening up a game. I can see this expanding to deeper challenges to drive activity on older titles.
37:06
Nintendo on March 31, 2025:
"Please look forward to the successor to the Nintendo Switch, currently scheduled for release in the year 2099."
While this may be outside the "comfort zone" of subjects for this channel, with the recent US presidential election results, do you think that tariffs will become an issue for Nintendo with regards to Nintendo Switch 2 or with selling physical games? Personally, I am significantly more reluctant to believe in a $400 USD price tag for the Switch 2 with recent events. Your insight and informed outlook on various economic and geopolitical trends have been quite valuable in providing informed and novel analysis regarding Nintendo, and I think your input on this would be illuminating.
Yeah, I have a video in progress (the audio's just gone onto my Patreon actually) looking into this. I want to see if there is anything in the Q&A about this before finalising it though.
Nintendo released payed DLC for Splatoon 3 in February, and the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe DLC in March 2022
I ought to give it to Nintendo the switch era has been their most successful yet I think they could see even bigger success with their next console, switch 2, this presentation highlights things that will be very important in the near future for example
1. Nintendo is expanding their internal studios and will no doubt continue to collaborate with other studios to make even more games to combat how long making games will be next gen. Of course I really hope that with the increase in development teams it’ll mean we can see certain franchises like Star fox make a return
2. Nintendo has broken into more regions like Brazil, china, and Saudi Arabia, this might potentially mean that switch 2 will launch on more countries that it did before which of course will mean higher sales for them
3. Major third party support. If rumors are true and the next system is on par with ps4 pro or Xbox series S it’ll then be safe to assume switch 2 will be a major historic moment for Nintendo as it’ll be the first time since the SNES that they had FULL 3rd party support
This is huge cuz not only does this mean more games for us to play but it’ll no doubt be profitable to have big hits like Elden ring, yearly releases like COD, and major new entries in franchises like resident evil
It’ll also make switch 2 more attractive to those who aren’t interested in Nintendo’s own offering while also offering a portable factor the competition can’t provide at potentially a cheaper price. Having Nintendo library of games AND third parties and enjoying them in a portable factor will no doubt lead to major success
4. Expanding their IPs. We’ve already seen the major success of the Mario movie and we know got it can impact games sales with Nintendo announcing like 6 Mario games after the movie’s release. This only continues with apps like Pikmin bloom, their museum, theme parks with expansions, and merchandise like animal crossing or Zelda Lego sets
I hope we’ll soon see them continuing to expand into movies and TV shows and cover larger demographics like say a pre-schoolers Kirby cartoon, continuing Mario star fox movies and potentially shows, a slice of life animal crossing that can be found on Netflix, or live action Zelda or Metroid movies for teens and adults that can all work to attract more interest to them
5. Switch’s healthy player base. I ought to give it to Nintendo again for making such a healthy system like the switch, its success was very natural unlike that of the Wii in which it felt like a flash in the pan. This is also strengthened when they showed that the yearly amount of active users continues to rise till this year which means most people who own a switch STILL continue to use it and are invested in Nintendo’s offering
This is all great as it means switch 2 will be building off of great momentum unlike Wii U or the original switch. Especially after the records breaking numbers their games sold on switch it’s fair to say Nintendo is more relevant than ever and that puts the switch 2 in a great position
6. Lastly, there’s also the lack of competition. The 9th gen hasn’t proven itself yet with the biggest criticism is its lack of exclusive games even sales of consoles like Xbox series s/x and ps5 aren’t up to snuff as their previous consoles during the same period and the increase in power hasn’t been very notable. Somehow the switch on its 7th year manages to release more exclusive and generate more money than Sony’s own offering
And I think this issue will be made more notable with the switch 2 which likely seems to be a very beefy console that will no doubt have Nintendo’s usually great library of exclusives and third party games all while still having a monopoly on handhelds and being sold for a cheaper price with other avenues of pulling people into their games like their movies
Overall the future looks very bright and I’m just interested to see what new games we’ll get, what new features we can see like their Nintendo music app, and just how far will their IPs expand. I’m really looking forward to it
Great post. Interesting thoughts.
PlayStation are looking to release their own handheld, and they're are a lot of PC based handhelds along with the steam deck, which will start competing with Nintendo
@@bradbradson4543
I didn’t want to make the comment super long but I doubt these PC handhelds will put up a competition. Steam deck been out since 2022 and has sold less than the Wii U a console the switch outsold in its first year. Especially when switch 2 releases the steam deck will lose any edge it once had with it’s only edge being able to play your steam library but that’s minor compared to switch 2 which will offer exclusives and physical games along with a dock and potentially better battery life for the same price of a steam
Same issue would happen for a Sony handheld, I’ve never heard any plans for em to make one tho only the current PS portal. Either way it’ll run into the same issue as steam deck and ps5 it’ll lack exclusives and part of me doubt it’ll be a hybrid so if you want to play on tv you might still need to spend 500$ on a ps5
@bradbradson4543 All of these pc handhelds are very expensive and their batteries drain quickly, on top of not being well optimized like the steam deck is. The steam deck is the best bank for your buck but even then, the switch 2 will make the steam deck or even the steam deck 2 that will eventually come out pointless, as its likely to truly be full 3rd party support. Why would i want a steam deck or handheld pc when all the steam games, and multiplatform games, AND nintendo Exclusives are available on the switch 2. It could truly be the everything console if done right. The switch 2 will also likely be cheaper compared to the competition. There is no way nintendo does not dominate the hanheld market. If they choose to be lighter on 3rd party support, they are backstabbing themselves. Kemmoado hit the nail on the head. Nintendos expanding and they would be the blindest bigots to not take advantage of where they are at. The only reason to not get the switch 2 would be for the exclusives that wont be able to run on it, which will be a small amount compared to its future library. What i am worried about is the amount of storage that will come with it. Less space means the more hardcore gamers are gonna have to spend money on sd cards to play the 3rd party games as they tend to take up much more storage. Other than that, if they dont improve the menu ui and analog sticks I will be speechless.
I really hope we get that dragalia lost back. Even if it's just an offline version like pocket camp for the switch.
It's interesting to think about Three Houses being the big break for Fire Emblem but the franchise overall performing about the same as it has on the 3DS. Like the drop-off from Three Houses to Engage is steeper than from Xenoblade 2 to 3.
Cygames also just released an Uma Musume game globally on switch
You may sound like Keir Starmer, but you talk a lot more sense than him!
Thank you for making something so corporate and bengin so interesting, as ever.
Keep up the good work matey
Well at least we can be rest assured that the Switch Successor will be backwards compatible. Really interesting stats on Metroid, Xenoblade, Pikmin, and Kirby. Thanks for the deep dive.
Oh yeah seeing that their happy wit the sales of all four is a great sign for the future.
Interesting to hear you speak again on the idea of a fourth ultra-budget Switch model akin to the New 2DS XL.
Definitely agree that they’d want to keep dockability as a factor - likewise I wonder if they would drop the Joy-Cons so they can keep the price and size down, losing tabletop mode for it as a result but keeping TV and handheld? Though I guess in that case docked mode would require an extra controller to be bundled in anyway… all very confusing to think about😭😭
I think a Switch smaller than a Lite could be a huge hit in many markets, especially if Nintendo markets it as a budget option. And funnily enough, yesterday I saw a regular Switch and a Lite at a gaming shop and near them there was one of those portable consoles that try to imitate the Switch, and it looked exactly like a Lite version, but it was much smaller, similar to a PS Vita. Nintendo should release something like that
Nobody’s stopping Nintendo from strengthening engagement with NSO’s core functionality - namely, online gaming.
It’s their own choice to frequently completely ignore online functionality in the most obvious places (looking at you Pikmin 4 dandori battle) in favor of … split screen?!
actually, they are, by refusing to put any R&D into their networking.
Because not every game needs online multiplayer.
Great video!
Thanks!
This was an excellent break down. This is miles further away than anything trash game media put.
Unsure if you’ll see this but there is one more thing I want to add to the discussion of a new Switch 1 model release - it might be potentially more beneficial for them to release a third iteration (V3) of the standard Switch model with further price optimisations. Not only would it require much less resources but also comes with the benefit of letting them stick to their tried and true three-prong model, assuming they cut ties with the OLED of course.
That said I do think it’s quite likely Nintendo might stay reluctant to cut the price of the original Switch even when its successor comes around, so I’m unsure. Plus you could definitely question the market appeal of what would regardless be seen as an eight-year old system in comparison to a brand new one.
Maybe they could have a best-of-both-worlds approach and make a digital-only Switch 1 model, identical to the old one in almost every way but with those price cuts from before and an ever-so-slight new coat of branding? I really am just spitballing here lmao but I think it’s worth the thought.
4:45
I think they'll try to keep the Switch Lite alive and coexisting with the Switch 2 as much as possible.
I think there's a digital-only Switch Lite on the horizon.
God I want a new Star Fox title.
Please release either new Star Fox, or at least Star Fox Zero, or Star Fox 64 3D upgraded from 3DS! And F Zero GX remaster
The good news is that Rail shooters and arcade racing games are still a thing indie games.
Spelt: X Pronounced: """"""""X"""""""" Is actually: Bollocks
31:00
We can calculate Metroid prime remastered indeed sold poorly, less than 2 million copies. Probably less than 1.5m
Good spot. (Very disappointing though).
Its only considered a flop with other game devs like EA, UBIsoft, et al, if it sells less than 5 million copies with their Triple Arse game budgets.
Nintendo doesnt really have to spend much on the remaster, not much marketing and the assets are mostly reused. Plus Metroid have always historically sold less than gangbusters compared to other Nintendo IPs.
@ even by Nintendo standards 1.5m is a heavy underperformer. This was an expensive remaster.
@@minecrafter3448 We don't know the budget. And no, 1.5 million isn't a heavy underperformer.
@ for a complete visual overhaul, nearly as difficult as remaking the game? Yes it is.
I still want an ugly TV Only Switch like the PS Vita Tv with a heavy discount.
34:21 shame they don’t count the pokemon stuff
Also I remember there was a Zelda mobile game in the works at some point
If Nintendo estimates to nearest 5 hour increments (once a game passes 20 hours or so) that's really not so bad. Their tracking last year was top marks even with this obfuscation. Steam was short about 10-15% on myself and several of my gaming friends, while Sony's was atrocious, off 20-30% for most people and about 60% for me, hundreds of hours low. (After being about 25% low for me in 2022.) An imprecise, rounded estimate of accurate numbers is still far more useful (and respected) than precise numbers that are completely inaccurate.
If you end up doing this, you should probably wait a while since people are tired of hearing about it but I'm really curious how Trump's terrifs on importing will affect Nintendo's relations with America. Idk just could be interesting. Regardless of whether you make that video, thanks for being super cool!
I doubt we'll hear anything about switch 2 until the new US president can give any confirmation of his proposed revenue regime of replacing income tax with sweeping tariffs. Or at the very least it'll be more expensive in the USA, which could throw a wrench into things
Yeah. I was thinking of making a video on this but decided before the election would be a bad time. I still may not as I don't know it will affect their choices - depends when the plan is explained.
21:34 personal time stamp please ignore
Don't tell me what to do.
With Splatoon 3 continuing to receive unique new splatfests for at least its third year, it's likely going to continue to receive some level of support even when the switch successor has long been announced or even already released. People have theorized about a potential third wave of DLC for a long time now, I wonder if that could be used to put Splatoon 3 back into the spotlight at the beginning of the new console's lifespan without having to rush out an entire game.
Either way, I believe and hope that Splatoon 4 will not be released within the first two or so years of the Switch 2's existence. It needs time.
I doubt splatoon will get more. they were *very* firm that the live service timeframe would be 2 years and no longer, I suspect that they're on contract working on their next game now (probably next splatoon or animal crossing). I'm sure they'll keep it running until well past 4 comes out eventually though.
@MudakTheMultiplier They also specified that the Grand Fest marked the end of *regular* updates, technically leaving the door open for surprise additions. And the new splatfests are still adding event-exclusive cosmetics.
There probably won't be any DLC, but I think it could still be in the cards.
Nintendo is doing a great job by growing without losing its identity. I really hope they don't fall for the open world at all costs/gaas trap.
18:18 didn’t splatoon 3 have paid dlc
yes it did. splatoon 3’s side order was paid dlc. it also free dlc updates as well, but it did have paid dlc
I wonder if this includes the physical games as well.
I don't think there's any way Nintendo hits their sales targets. Even after lowering projections, it's still going to fall short.
There's no way they will sell 7 - 8 million more Switch units by the end of February.
32:12 - Highlighting franchise growth between Wii U/3DS & Switch is a bit silly with these games...
The Switch had far more entries, and more time on the market Not even factoring in the larger install size, it doesn't really seem like an honest analysis when Switch got every Xenoblade game & like a dozen Kirby games 😅
It would be interesting to see a switch lite that can be docked, or they can save on RnD and just lower the price of the original switch when switch 2 comes out
Just a switch lite with a bigger slightly bigger screen would be enough
I stopped renewing my membership because 1 money is tight, 2 I was waiting for switch 2 news (been a while so that was dumb tbh lol), and 3 I just stopped playing multiplayer games, there's not many people I play online with, and I fell out of splatoon mostly just cause I've played a lot of it. I don't have a good reason to renew it right now other than maybe the retro games but I can live with the ones I've got physically right now that don't require any extra money to enjoy.
Omg Falcom mentioned
Let's hope they put star fox in the DK movie
I don't think they mix well????
Mario 8 Delux Definitive edition, launch title for Switch 2?
I was thinking about how nintendo could sell zelda BotW on the next gen
My thought is that it may be possible to besides clean up resolution and frame rate they could do the same with TotK and bundle them....not only that but making some kind of interconnection between the two games where (perhaps) the armor upgrades and korok seeds obtained in the first game transfer to the second or even be able to have the mastercycle usable in TotK. It may be game breaking to have all that in TotK but I don't know it that necessarily matters for 2 older titles by the time the next gen console releaaes
10:19 wow they really skipped advance wars on 2023
42 minutes!!
10:12 Compare this to the PS5…
In the Nintendo stores around the world, there’s one in Israel, right? Not showing on the map.
Interesting point. The website still suggests that it's operating there. A curious omission if so.
@
I send a e-mail, asking about.
Lol at butthurt Nintendo influencers trying to spin the news into something bad
Also a new ip try per console would be nice and maybe another try with arms.
How will president-elect Donald J. Trump's tariff proposals affect the release of the Nintendo Switch 2 in the United States?
I'll have a video on this in time - the audio is on my Patreon but I have another video I want to do first.
ESG stuff? I'm getting pessimistic.
I bet you don't even know what it means.
@NuiYabuko because I oppose it, I must be ignorant. Lol
Could someone explain, how did we know the switch successor will be backwards compatible before the announcement? I thought this is the first official confirmation of this, since I don't follow the news very closely, and some clarification would be helpful.
Great video so far, I really appreciate the detailed analysis here!
This is the first actual confirmation of the successor hacking backwards compatibility. Before now people were just assuming that it would anyway because “why wouldn’t it,” but there was no proper evidence of it before now.
@@Batterskull Thank you for clarifying ^-^
The evidence was Nintendo seemingly continuing to actively be releasing new Switch games well into 2025, despite the new console having been revealed (and maybe even released) by the time these games release.
The pokemon leaks pointed to the switch successor using the same rom format as original switch. Which would automatically point to backwards comparability
The main reason I can remember is that there was a comment a year ago from Browser; the president of NoA; where he talked about backwards compatibility in a very round-about way where he said that the Nintendo Account was part of Nintendo's plan to make the transition from Switch to a successor easier. If I remember correctly; he came out to make the comment ad-mist a bunch of rumors that the Switch 2 wouldn't be backwards compatible, so most people assumed he was indirectly refuting the rumors.
Quote:
"Well, first I can’t comment - or I won’t comment, I should say - on the rumours that are out there, but one thing we’ve done with the Switch to help with that communication and transition is the formation of the Nintendo Account (...) Our goal is to minimize the dip you typically see in the last year of one cycle and the beginning of another. I can’t speak to the possible features of a new platform, but the Nintendo Account is a strong basis for having that communication as we make the transition."
I’m early.
I don't get why you use percentages' referring to probability when you have nothing to base them in. Saying something has a 10% chance doesn't really mean anything. It's easier and frrankly less disingenuous to say high or low chance than ascribe an arbitrary number that has no data backing it up.
It's my confidence level and judgment based on the factors given but I aim for my 10% forecasts to come off 10% of the time, my 30% forecasts 30% of the time and so on so these become accurate in the aggregate. Or that's the idea - you can see my last review video earlier in the year.
this is the worst thing that's ever happened :(
@@josiahsuarez I'm sorry, what?
Huh
I wish they would use F-Zero or Wave Race as tech example for new hardware, like in the old days.
Also I miss the WiiU playtime diagram.