Chinese property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing. - Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down. - Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades. - Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the 2019 pre-pandemic level. - Consumer prices are experiencing deflation. - Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record. - Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries. *Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol Where does the growth come from?
Thanks for the breakdown! Just a quick off-topic question: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Currently, it's said that many US people are living every day in constant fear of a persistently rising (not falling !) US stock market, while the opposite seems more or less to be the case in today's China (and Hong Kong), despite Beijing's latest stock-market-boosting monetary-cum-fiscal bazookas. But it's also said that China's stock market today looks increasingly like the US's stock market in 1982. - The year 1982 can be regarded as a performance-watershed for the US's overall stock market in the past several decades. In at least 15 of the years before 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA), like today's Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC), was also mostly going nowhere, fluctuating roughly between 600 and 1,000 most of the time, resembling the current fluctuation of China's SSEC between 2,600 and 4,000. But starting from 1982, quite unexpected by most of the US people at that time, the DJIA rose from 1,000 to today's more than 40,000 in the past 4 decades ! And so, the trillion-dollar question is ------ what happened in the US in 1982 ? ---
The year 1982 marked a transformative moment for the U.S. stock market, widely regarded as the beginning of a historic bull market that lasted for decades. Several key factors converged to set the stage for this watershed year: 1. Economic Policy Shifts Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy: In the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker aggressively raised interest rates to combat the high inflation of the 1970s. By 1982, the Fed began to ease these rates, signaling a shift in monetary policy. This move alleviated the restrictive financial environment, leading to a resurgence in economic activity and investor confidence. Reaganomics: The economic policies implemented by President Ronald Reagan, including significant tax cuts, deregulation, and a focus on reducing government spending, were designed to stimulate growth. While controversial, these policies were perceived as business-friendly, boosting corporate profitability and investment sentiment. 2. Resolution of Economic Malaise The 1970s were plagued by stagflation-a combination of high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant growth. By 1982, inflation had peaked and started to decline sharply, thanks to the Fed's earlier actions. This provided a foundation for stable growth and improving corporate margins. 3. Structural Changes in the Economy The early 1980s saw a shift from a manufacturing-based economy to a more diversified structure, including growth in technology and services. This transition set the stage for new industries to flourish, particularly in the tech sector, which would later dominate market growth. 4. Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics For over a decade prior to 1982, the U.S. stock market had been largely stagnant, as you noted, with the DJIA trading in a tight range. This period of underperformance, combined with improving economic indicators, created a classic contrarian opportunity for investors. The undervaluation of stocks relative to historical earnings and the increasing role of institutional investors fueled a substantial re-rating of equities. 5. Deregulation of Financial Markets Deregulatory measures in the financial sector, including changes in pension fund rules and the introduction of 401(k) plans, significantly increased the flow of capital into the stock market. This helped to sustain the bull market as more Americans participated in equity investing. 6. Geopolitical Stability By 1982, global geopolitical tensions such as the Cold War were relatively stable compared to earlier decades. This stability reduced uncertainty, making equities more attractive. Comparing 1982 U.S. Market with Today’s China Market Similarities: Valuation Levels: Just as U.S. stocks were undervalued before 1982, many analysts argue that Chinese stocks today are trading at historically low valuation multiples. Economic Transition: China is undergoing a shift from a manufacturing/export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption and innovation, akin to the U.S. pivot to tech and services. Market Stagnation: The Shanghai Composite Index has been range-bound for years, echoing the DJIA’s pattern before its breakout. Differences: Policy Response: While U.S. policymakers addressed economic challenges through aggressive monetary tightening and structural reforms, China's approach combines monetary stimulus with targeted fiscal measures. Global Context: China faces unique geopolitical challenges and slower global growth prospects that may hinder a 1982-style breakout. Takeaway What happened in 1982 was a combination of favorable monetary policy, fiscal reforms, economic stabilization, and shifting investor sentiment. While China's market today shares some parallels with pre-1982 U.S. conditions, the trillion-dollar question for China remains whether it can engineer the structural reforms and market confidence necessary to replicate such a dramatic performance. Disclaimer: This is a historical and analytical perspective, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor for investment decisions.
@@LeeTutor-iy5vl During the 4 decades before 1982, the US's average yearly GDP growth rate was as high as 8.9%, but during the 4 decades after 1982, the rate dropped to only 5.2%, roughly a 40% discount of the original figure. The main reason for this non-trivial drop had had to do mostly with the US's housing prices at that time, which, like China's today, could no longer keep on rising. After the saturation of the US's housing market at that time, this market in the US could no longer keep acting as the strong running horse constantly pulling the stream of many other related upstream and downstream US industries to go quickly forward. And the new-money-creating power of many mortgage-financing US banks at that time also dropped non-trivially as a result. Hence, the US's economic growth had had to slow down after 1982, but her stock market started to pick up during the last 4 decades, as explained upstairs by LeeTutor-iy5vl. - Deja vu for today's China. There's hardly anything that's really new under the same sun. Which also means, the Chinese expert who has suggested the latest boosting of China's stock market to the Beijing decision-makers is probably a real expert. ---
Two Nobel Prize Economy 2024 winners predicted correctly 10 years ago the *inevitable downfall* of the Chinese 🇨🇳 economy in a book titled "Why Nations Fail." - The downfall is attributed to its *political system,* not its leadership.
Chinese property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing.
- Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
- Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades.
- Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the 2019 pre-pandemic level.
- Consumer prices are experiencing deflation.
- Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record.
- Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries.
*Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol
Where does the growth come from?
Two bots for the same idiot.
More mendacious Sinophobic spam from "ArabicReja"
@@AlejandroPikoulasPlata “Lastetc"/"lastetc"/"verylastetc"/"nextlastetc"/”bestlastetc”, “Ahmetetc” and “Arabicetc are one and the same.
China 0 recession
China 0 inflation
Usa recession
Uk recession
France recession
Germany recessing
India recession
Taiwan recession
Saludos desde Argentina
Thanks for the breakdown! Just a quick off-topic question: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
I'm a starbuck guy ... & brian is obviously on the right track
Lol Zhong being #1 rich man is in trouble .... Might as well call him Jack Zhong
Fidelity has some good analyst over there
the hand gesture of this fidelity lady is very distracting......
yes but shes very easy on the eye
Currently, it's said that many US people are living every day in constant fear of a persistently rising (not falling !) US stock market, while the opposite seems more or less to be the case in today's China (and Hong Kong), despite Beijing's latest stock-market-boosting monetary-cum-fiscal bazookas.
But it's also said that China's stock market today looks increasingly like the US's stock market in 1982.
-
The year 1982 can be regarded as a performance-watershed for the US's overall stock market in the past several decades.
In at least 15 of the years before 1982, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA), like today's Shanghai Composite Index (SSEC), was also mostly going nowhere, fluctuating roughly between 600 and 1,000 most of the time, resembling the current fluctuation of China's SSEC between 2,600 and 4,000.
But starting from 1982, quite unexpected by most of the US people at that time, the DJIA rose from 1,000 to today's more than 40,000 in the past 4 decades !
And so, the trillion-dollar question is ------ what happened in the US in 1982 ?
---
The year 1982 marked a transformative moment for the U.S. stock market, widely regarded as the beginning of a historic bull market that lasted for decades. Several key factors converged to set the stage for this watershed year:
1. Economic Policy Shifts
Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Policy: In the early 1980s, the Federal Reserve under Chairman Paul Volcker aggressively raised interest rates to combat the high inflation of the 1970s. By 1982, the Fed began to ease these rates, signaling a shift in monetary policy. This move alleviated the restrictive financial environment, leading to a resurgence in economic activity and investor confidence.
Reaganomics: The economic policies implemented by President Ronald Reagan, including significant tax cuts, deregulation, and a focus on reducing government spending, were designed to stimulate growth. While controversial, these policies were perceived as business-friendly, boosting corporate profitability and investment sentiment.
2. Resolution of Economic Malaise
The 1970s were plagued by stagflation-a combination of high inflation, high unemployment, and stagnant growth. By 1982, inflation had peaked and started to decline sharply, thanks to the Fed's earlier actions. This provided a foundation for stable growth and improving corporate margins.
3. Structural Changes in the Economy
The early 1980s saw a shift from a manufacturing-based economy to a more diversified structure, including growth in technology and services. This transition set the stage for new industries to flourish, particularly in the tech sector, which would later dominate market growth.
4. Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics
For over a decade prior to 1982, the U.S. stock market had been largely stagnant, as you noted, with the DJIA trading in a tight range. This period of underperformance, combined with improving economic indicators, created a classic contrarian opportunity for investors.
The undervaluation of stocks relative to historical earnings and the increasing role of institutional investors fueled a substantial re-rating of equities.
5. Deregulation of Financial Markets
Deregulatory measures in the financial sector, including changes in pension fund rules and the introduction of 401(k) plans, significantly increased the flow of capital into the stock market. This helped to sustain the bull market as more Americans participated in equity investing.
6. Geopolitical Stability
By 1982, global geopolitical tensions such as the Cold War were relatively stable compared to earlier decades. This stability reduced uncertainty, making equities more attractive.
Comparing 1982 U.S. Market with Today’s China Market
Similarities:
Valuation Levels: Just as U.S. stocks were undervalued before 1982, many analysts argue that Chinese stocks today are trading at historically low valuation multiples.
Economic Transition: China is undergoing a shift from a manufacturing/export-led economy to one driven by domestic consumption and innovation, akin to the U.S. pivot to tech and services.
Market Stagnation: The Shanghai Composite Index has been range-bound for years, echoing the DJIA’s pattern before its breakout.
Differences:
Policy Response: While U.S. policymakers addressed economic challenges through aggressive monetary tightening and structural reforms, China's approach combines monetary stimulus with targeted fiscal measures.
Global Context: China faces unique geopolitical challenges and slower global growth prospects that may hinder a 1982-style breakout.
Takeaway
What happened in 1982 was a combination of favorable monetary policy, fiscal reforms, economic stabilization, and shifting investor sentiment. While China's market today shares some parallels with pre-1982 U.S. conditions, the trillion-dollar question for China remains whether it can engineer the structural reforms and market confidence necessary to replicate such a dramatic performance.
Disclaimer: This is a historical and analytical perspective, not financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial advisor for investment decisions.
@@LeeTutor-iy5vl
During the 4 decades before 1982, the US's average yearly GDP growth rate was as high as 8.9%, but during the 4 decades after 1982, the rate dropped to only 5.2%, roughly a 40% discount of the original figure.
The main reason for this non-trivial drop had had to do mostly with the US's housing prices at that time, which, like China's today, could no longer keep on rising.
After the saturation of the US's housing market at that time, this market in the US could no longer keep acting as the strong running horse constantly pulling the stream of many other related upstream and downstream US industries to go quickly forward.
And the new-money-creating power of many mortgage-financing US banks at that time also dropped non-trivially as a result.
Hence, the US's economic growth had had to slow down after 1982, but her stock market started to pick up during the last 4 decades, as explained upstairs by LeeTutor-iy5vl.
-
Deja vu for today's China.
There's hardly anything that's really new under the same sun.
Which also means, the Chinese expert who has suggested the latest boosting of China's stock market to the Beijing decision-makers is probably a real expert.
---
I keep hearing P-Diddy stocks! He selling baby lotion on an all time high?
Two Nobel Prize Economy 2024 winners predicted correctly 10 years ago the *inevitable downfall* of the Chinese 🇨🇳 economy in a book titled "Why Nations Fail."
- The downfall is attributed to its *political system,* not its leadership.
The usual mendacious, Sinophobic spam from "lastChang".
@@ToiChutGongWuturn your VPN off dude
@@AndyMitch-ec5iy It is amazing how the Sinophobic bots claim they know where I am from. America, Canada, Malaysia & "International" so far🤣
@@ToiChutGongWu All I need to do is check your profile history and see what you have been commenting on 😉
Turn the VPN off pls.